AGCO Corporation (AGCO)
AGCO Corporation manufactures and distributes agricultural equipment and related spare parts worldwide. The company is headquartered in Duluth, Georgia.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 13.96% per annum.
- AGCO price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $91.76 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 26.10% per annum.
- AGCO price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AGCO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 23, 2022
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 5.3182
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0618
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -13.96%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0618) – 1
= 28.07%
November 23, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y758)
= Exp(a + b × X758 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,099 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3182 + -0.0004 × 1,099 + 2 × 0.0618)
= Exp(4.9892)
= $146.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y758)
= Exp(a + b × X758 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,099 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3182 + -0.0004 × 1,099 – 2 × 0.0618)
= Exp(4.7418)
= $114.64
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3182 + -0.0004 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0618)
= Exp(4.6897)
= $108.82
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3182 + -0.0004 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0618)
= Exp(4.4423)
= $84.97
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 13.96% per annum.
- AGCO price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $91.76 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 14, 2023
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 6.0137
b = -0.0008
s = 0.0557
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -26.10%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0557) – 1
= 24.96%
December 14, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,023)
= Exp(a + b × X1,023 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,485 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0137 + -0.0008 × 1,485 + 2 × 0.0557)
= Exp(4.8946)
= $133.57
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,023)
= Exp(a + b × X1,023 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,485 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0137 + -0.0008 × 1,485 – 2 × 0.0557)
= Exp(4.6718)
= $106.89
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0137 + -0.0008 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0557)
= Exp(4.6121)
= $100.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0137 + -0.0008 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0557)
= Exp(4.3893)
= $80.58
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 26.10% per annum.
- AGCO price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.