CNH Industrial N.V. (CNH)
CNH Industrial N.V., an equipment and services company, engages in the design, production, marketing, sale, and financing of agricultural and construction equipment in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, South America, and the Asia Pacific. The company is headquartered in Basildon, the United Kingdom.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 9.26% per annum.
- CNH price at the close of March 12, 2025 was $12.77 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 49.52% per annum.
- CNH price at the close of March 12, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CNH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 19, 2021
End date: January 16, 2025
a = 2.8369
b = -0.0003
s = 0.1051
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -9.26%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1051) – 1
= 52.27%
February 19, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y236)
= Exp(a + b × X236 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 343 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8369 + -0.0003 × 343 + 2 × 0.1051)
= Exp(2.9558)
= $19.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y236)
= Exp(a + b × X236 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 343 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8369 + -0.0003 × 343 – 2 × 0.1051)
= Exp(2.5353)
= $12.62
January 16, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,218)
= Exp(a + b × X1,218 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,770 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8369 + -0.0003 × 1,770 + 2 × 0.1051)
= Exp(2.5757)
= $13.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,218)
= Exp(a + b × X1,218 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,770 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8369 + -0.0003 × 1,770 – 2 × 0.1051)
= Exp(2.1552)
= $8.63
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 9.26% per annum.
- CNH price at the close of March 12, 2025 was $12.77 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 20, 2024
End date: March 12, 2025
a = 0.5468
b = 0.0011
s = 0.0418
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 49.52%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0418) – 1
= 18.21%
June 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,074)
= Exp(a + b × X1,074 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,560 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.5468 + 0.0011 × 1,560 + 2 × 0.0418)
= Exp(2.3498)
= $10.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,074)
= Exp(a + b × X1,074 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,560 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.5468 + 0.0011 × 1,560 – 2 × 0.0418)
= Exp(2.1826)
= $8.87
March 12, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.5468 + 0.0011 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0418)
= Exp(2.6419)
= $14.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.5468 + 0.0011 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0418)
= Exp(2.4746)
= $11.88
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 49.52% per annum.
- CNH price at the close of March 12, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.