Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc (WBA)
Walgreens Boots Alliance, Inc. is an American pharmaceuticals holding company headquartered in Deerfield, Illinois. It owns the pharmacy chains Walgreens and Boots, as well as several pharmaceutical manufacturing, wholesale, and distribution companies.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 75.08% per annum.
- WBA price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $8.24 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 41.47% per annum.
- WBA price at the close of November 20, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.10 (1.22%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of WBA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 13, 2023
End date: October 14, 2024
a = 8.9219
b = -0.0038
s = 0.0762
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0038) – 1
= -75.08%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0762) – 1
= 35.63%
December 13, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,021)
= Exp(a + b × X1,021 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,483 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.9219 + -0.0038 × 1,483 + 2 × 0.0762)
= Exp(3.4280)
= $30.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,021)
= Exp(a + b × X1,021 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,483 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.9219 + -0.0038 × 1,483 – 2 × 0.0762)
= Exp(3.1232)
= $22.72
October 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,230)
= Exp(a + b × X1,230 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,789 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.9219 + -0.0038 × 1,789 + 2 × 0.0762)
= Exp(2.2629)
= $9.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,230)
= Exp(a + b × X1,230 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,789 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.9219 + -0.0038 × 1,789 – 2 × 0.0762)
= Exp(1.9582)
= $7.09
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 75.08% per annum.
- WBA price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $8.24 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 27, 2024
End date: November 13, 2024
a = 0.4956
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0550
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 41.47%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0550) – 1
= 24.61%
August 27, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,197)
= Exp(a + b × X1,197 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,741 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.4956 + 0.0010 × 1,741 + 2 × 0.0550)
= Exp(2.2604)
= $9.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,197)
= Exp(a + b × X1,197 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,741 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.4956 + 0.0010 × 1,741 – 2 × 0.0550)
= Exp(2.0404)
= $7.69
November 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,819 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.4956 + 0.0010 × 1,819 + 2 × 0.0550)
= Exp(2.3346)
= $10.32
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,819 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.4956 + 0.0010 × 1,819 – 2 × 0.0550)
= Exp(2.1146)
= $8.29
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 41.47% per annum.
- WBA price at the close of November 20, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.10 (1.22%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.