Ultra Clean Holdings Inc (UCTT)
Ultra Clean Holdings, Inc. designs, designs and manufactures production tools, modules and subsystems for the semiconductor and display capital equipment markets in the United States and internationally. The company is headquartered in Hayward, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 20.67% per annum.
- UCTT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $35.45 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $5.77 (19.42%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 13.21% per annum.
- UCTT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UCTT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 12, 2021
End date: December 20, 2023
a = 4.2401
b = -0.0006
s = 0.1543
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -20.67%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1543) – 1
= 85.40%
January 12, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y287)
= Exp(a + b × X287 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 419 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2401 + -0.0006 × 419 + 2 × 0.1543)
= Exp(4.2830)
= $72.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y287)
= Exp(a + b × X287 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 419 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2401 + -0.0006 × 419 – 2 × 0.1543)
= Exp(3.6657)
= $39.08
December 20, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,027)
= Exp(a + b × X1,027 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,491 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2401 + -0.0006 × 1,491 + 2 × 0.1543)
= Exp(3.6031)
= $36.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,027)
= Exp(a + b × X1,027 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,491 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2401 + -0.0006 × 1,491 – 2 × 0.1543)
= Exp(2.9858)
= $19.80
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 20.67% per annum.
- UCTT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $35.45 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $5.77 (19.42%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 11, 2022
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 3.0779
b = 0.0003
s = 0.1470
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 13.21%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1470) – 1
= 80.07%
April 11, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y601)
= Exp(a + b × X601 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 873 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0779 + 0.0003 × 873 + 2 × 0.1470)
= Exp(3.6686)
= $39.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y601)
= Exp(a + b × X601 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 873 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0779 + 0.0003 × 873 – 2 × 0.1470)
= Exp(3.0805)
= $21.77
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0779 + 0.0003 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1470)
= Exp(3.9925)
= $54.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0779 + 0.0003 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1470)
= Exp(3.4043)
= $30.09
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 13.21% per annum.
- UCTT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.