Stock Price Trends

Sonos Inc (SONO)

Sonos, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and sells multi-room audio products in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia Pacific. The company is headquartered in Santa Barbara, California.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 35.08% per annum.
  • SONO price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $12.95 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.33 (21.99%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 13.12% per annum.
  • SONO price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SONO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: February 3, 2021
End date: November 27, 2023

a = 4.2386

b = -0.0012

s = 0.1424

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -35.08%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1424) – 1
= 76.74%

February 3, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y301)
= Exp(a + b × X301 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 440 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2386 + -0.0012 × 440 + 2 × 0.1424)
= Exp(4.0027)
= $54.74

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y301)
= Exp(a + b × X301 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 440 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2386 + -0.0012 × 440 – 2 × 0.1424)
= Exp(3.4332)
= $30.97

November 27, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,009)
= Exp(a + b × X1,009 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,467 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2386 + -0.0012 × 1,467 + 2 × 0.1424)
= Exp(2.7872)
= $16.24

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,009)
= Exp(a + b × X1,009 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,467 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2386 + -0.0012 × 1,467 – 2 × 0.1424)
= Exp(2.2177)
= $9.19

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 35.08% per annum.
  • SONO price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $12.95 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.33 (21.99%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: May 6, 2022
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 3.2990

b = -0.0004

s = 0.1552

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -13.12%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1552) – 1
= 86.03%

May 6, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y618)
= Exp(a + b × X618 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 897 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2990 + -0.0004 × 897 + 2 × 0.1552)
= Exp(3.2637)
= $26.15

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y618)
= Exp(a + b × X618 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 897 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2990 + -0.0004 × 897 – 2 × 0.1552)
= Exp(2.6429)
= $14.05

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2990 + -0.0004 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1552)
= Exp(2.9056)
= $18.28

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2990 + -0.0004 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1552)
= Exp(2.2848)
= $9.82

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 13.12% per annum.
  • SONO price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

See Also

Symbol

Company name

GRMN
Garmin Ltd