Stock Price Trends

Sylvamo Corp (SLVM)

None

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 97.23% per annum.
  • SLVM price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $87.38 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 80.87% per annum.
  • SLVM price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SLVM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: August 9, 2023
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 2.3525

b = 0.0019

s = 0.0525

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0019) – 1
= 97.23%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0525) – 1
= 23.35%

August 9, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y471)
= Exp(a + b × X471 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 685 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3525 + 0.0019 × 685 + 2 × 0.0525)
= Exp(3.7321)
= $41.77

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y471)
= Exp(a + b × X471 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 685 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3525 + 0.0019 × 685 – 2 × 0.0525)
= Exp(3.5222)
= $33.86

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y795)
= Exp(a + b × X795 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,154 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3525 + 0.0019 × 1,154 + 2 × 0.0525)
= Exp(4.6048)
= $99.96

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y795)
= Exp(a + b × X795 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,154 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3525 + 0.0019 × 1,154 – 2 × 0.0525)
= Exp(4.3949)
= $81.04

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 97.23% per annum.
  • SLVM price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $87.38 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: February 26, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 2.6051

b = 0.0016

s = 0.0431

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0016) – 1
= 80.87%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0431) – 1
= 18.84%

February 26, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y608)
= Exp(a + b × X608 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 886 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6051 + 0.0016 × 886 + 2 × 0.0431)
= Exp(4.1299)
= $62.17

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y608)
= Exp(a + b × X608 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 886 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6051 + 0.0016 × 886 – 2 × 0.0431)
= Exp(3.9573)
= $52.32

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y795)
= Exp(a + b × X795 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,154 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6051 + 0.0016 × 1,154 + 2 × 0.0431)
= Exp(4.5650)
= $96.07

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y795)
= Exp(a + b × X795 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,154 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6051 + 0.0016 × 1,154 – 2 × 0.0431)
= Exp(4.3924)
= $80.84

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 80.87% per annum.
  • SLVM price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

See Also