Boston Beer Company Inc (SAM)
The Boston Beer Company, Inc. produces and sells alcoholic beverages primarily in the United States. The company is headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 1.83% per annum.
- SAM price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $309.07 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 26.17% per annum.
- SAM price at the close of November 20, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $25.22 (8.89%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SAM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 17, 2022
End date: February 27, 2024
a = 5.9115
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0735
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -1.83%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0735) – 1
= 34.18%
February 17, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y564)
= Exp(a + b × X564 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 819 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9115 + -0.0001 × 819 + 2 × 0.0735)
= Exp(6.0171)
= $410.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y564)
= Exp(a + b × X564 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 819 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9115 + -0.0001 × 819 – 2 × 0.0735)
= Exp(5.7231)
= $305.84
February 27, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,071)
= Exp(a + b × X1,071 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,559 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9115 + -0.0001 × 1,559 + 2 × 0.0735)
= Exp(5.9796)
= $395.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,071)
= Exp(a + b × X1,071 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,559 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9115 + -0.0001 × 1,559 – 2 × 0.0735)
= Exp(5.6856)
= $294.60
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 1.83% per annum.
- SAM price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $309.07 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 28, 2023
End date: October 15, 2024
a = 7.0611
b = -0.0008
s = 0.0525
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -26.17%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0525) – 1
= 23.36%
July 28, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y925)
= Exp(a + b × X925 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,345 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0611 + -0.0008 × 1,345 + 2 × 0.0525)
= Exp(6.0482)
= $423.36
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y925)
= Exp(a + b × X925 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,345 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0611 + -0.0008 × 1,345 – 2 × 0.0525)
= Exp(5.8383)
= $343.18
October 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,231)
= Exp(a + b × X1,231 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,790 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0611 + -0.0008 × 1,790 + 2 × 0.0525)
= Exp(5.6784)
= $292.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,231)
= Exp(a + b × X1,231 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,790 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0611 + -0.0008 × 1,790 – 2 × 0.0525)
= Exp(5.4684)
= $237.08
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 26.17% per annum.
- SAM price at the close of November 20, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $25.22 (8.89%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.