B. Riley Financial Inc (RILY)
B. Riley Financial, Inc. provides collaborative financial services and solutions in North America, Australia and Europe. The company is headquartered in Los Angeles, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 37.77% per annum.
- RILY price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $4.81 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.48 (23.57%).
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 98.33% per annum.
- RILY price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of RILY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 23, 2021
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 4.9621
b = -0.0013
s = 0.3747
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0013) – 1
= -37.77%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.3747) – 1
= 347.71%
April 23, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y357)
= Exp(a + b × X357 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 520 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9621 + -0.0013 × 520 + 2 × 0.3747)
= Exp(5.0358)
= $153.82
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y357)
= Exp(a + b × X357 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 520 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9621 + -0.0013 × 520 – 2 × 0.3747)
= Exp(3.5368)
= $34.36
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9621 + -0.0013 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.3747)
= Exp(3.3384)
= $28.18
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9621 + -0.0013 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.3747)
= Exp(1.8395)
= $6.29
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 37.77% per annum.
- RILY price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $4.81 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.48 (23.57%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 24, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 21.7243
b = -0.0112
s = 0.2596
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0112) – 1
= -98.33%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.2596) – 1
= 182.46%
April 24, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,112)
= Exp(a + b × X1,112 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,617 + 2 × s)
= Exp(21.7243 + -0.0112 × 1,617 + 2 × 0.2596)
= Exp(4.1245)
= $61.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,112)
= Exp(a + b × X1,112 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,617 – 2 × s)
= Exp(21.7243 + -0.0112 × 1,617 – 2 × 0.2596)
= Exp(3.0862)
= $21.89
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(21.7243 + -0.0112 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.2596)
= Exp(1.7826)
= $5.95
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(21.7243 + -0.0112 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.2596)
= Exp(0.7443)
= $2.10
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 98.33% per annum.
- RILY price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.