Stock Price Trends

Newell Brands Inc (NWL)

Newell Brands is an American worldwide manufacturer, marketer and distributor of consumer and commercial products with a portfolio of brands.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 36.08% per annum.
  • NWL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $8.84 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.97 (28.71%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 3.95% per annum.
  • NWL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NWL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 26, 2021
End date: July 25, 2024

a = 3.9279

b = -0.0012

s = 0.1190

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -36.08%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1190) – 1
= 60.99%

March 26, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y337)
= Exp(a + b × X337 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 491 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9279 + -0.0012 × 491 + 2 × 0.1190)
= Exp(3.5639)
= $35.30

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y337)
= Exp(a + b × X337 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 491 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9279 + -0.0012 × 491 – 2 × 0.1190)
= Exp(3.0877)
= $21.93

July 25, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,174)
= Exp(a + b × X1,174 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,708 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9279 + -0.0012 × 1,708 + 2 × 0.1190)
= Exp(2.0716)
= $7.94

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,174)
= Exp(a + b × X1,174 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,708 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9279 + -0.0012 × 1,708 – 2 × 0.1190)
= Exp(1.5954)
= $4.93

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 36.08% per annum.
  • NWL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $8.84 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.97 (28.71%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: October 3, 2023
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 1.8381

b = 0.0001

s = 0.0972

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 3.95%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0972) – 1
= 47.50%

October 3, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y971)
= Exp(a + b × X971 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,412 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8381 + 0.0001 × 1,412 + 2 × 0.0972)
= Exp(2.1821)
= $8.87

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y971)
= Exp(a + b × X971 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,412 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8381 + 0.0001 × 1,412 – 2 × 0.0972)
= Exp(1.7934)
= $6.01

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8381 + 0.0001 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0972)
= Exp(2.2260)
= $9.26

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8381 + 0.0001 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0972)
= Exp(1.8373)
= $6.28

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 3.95% per annum.
  • NWL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.