Stock Price Trends

Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (LPX)

Louisiana-Pacific Corporation, manufactures and markets construction products primarily for use in the construction, repair and remodeling of new homes and outdoor structures markets. The company is headquartered in Nashville, Tennessee.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 85.78% per annum.
  • LPX price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $111.39 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 872.58% per annum.
  • LPX price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LPX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 13, 2023
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 1.6201

b = 0.0017

s = 0.0571

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0017) – 1
= 85.78%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0571) – 1
= 25.67%

September 13, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y957)
= Exp(a + b × X957 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,392 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6201 + 0.0017 × 1,392 + 2 × 0.0571)
= Exp(4.0966)
= $60.13

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y957)
= Exp(a + b × X957 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,392 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6201 + 0.0017 × 1,392 – 2 × 0.0571)
= Exp(3.8681)
= $47.85

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6201 + 0.0017 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0571)
= Exp(4.8330)
= $125.59

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6201 + 0.0017 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0571)
= Exp(4.6045)
= $99.94

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 85.78% per annum.
  • LPX price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $111.39 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: October 25, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024

a = -6.6309

b = 0.0062

s = 0.0267

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0062) – 1
= 872.58%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0267) – 1
= 11.26%

October 25, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,800 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-6.6309 + 0.0062 × 1,800 + 2 × 0.0267)
= Exp(4.6406)
= $103.61

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,800 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-6.6309 + 0.0062 × 1,800 – 2 × 0.0267)
= Exp(4.5339)
= $93.12

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-6.6309 + 0.0062 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0267)
= Exp(4.8027)
= $121.83

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-6.6309 + 0.0062 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0267)
= Exp(4.6960)
= $109.50

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 872.58% per annum.
  • LPX price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

See Also