St Joe Company (JOE)
The St. Joe Company is a real estate development, asset management and operation company in Northwest Florida, USA. The company is headquartered in Panama City Beach, Florida.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 5.67% per annum.
- JOE price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $50.50 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.42 (7.26%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 27.64% per annum.
- JOE price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $2.91 (5.46%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of JOE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 14, 2020
End date: June 28, 2023
a = 3.9034
b = -0.0002
s = 0.1204
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -5.67%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1204) – 1
= 61.86%
December 14, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y268)
= Exp(a + b × X268 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 390 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9034 + -0.0002 × 390 + 2 × 0.1204)
= Exp(4.0817)
= $59.25
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y268)
= Exp(a + b × X268 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 390 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9034 + -0.0002 × 390 – 2 × 0.1204)
= Exp(3.6002)
= $36.60
June 28, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y905)
= Exp(a + b × X905 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,316 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9034 + -0.0002 × 1,316 + 2 × 0.1204)
= Exp(3.9335)
= $51.09
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y905)
= Exp(a + b × X905 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,316 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9034 + -0.0002 × 1,316 – 2 × 0.1204)
= Exp(3.4520)
= $31.56
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 5.67% per annum.
- JOE price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $50.50 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.42 (7.26%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 13, 2022
End date: October 23, 2024
a = 2.9496
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0963
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 27.64%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0963) – 1
= 46.97%
June 13, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y644)
= Exp(a + b × X644 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 936 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9496 + 0.0007 × 936 + 2 × 0.0963)
= Exp(3.7681)
= $43.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y644)
= Exp(a + b × X644 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 936 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9496 + 0.0007 × 936 – 2 × 0.0963)
= Exp(3.3830)
= $29.46
October 23, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,238)
= Exp(a + b × X1,238 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9496 + 0.0007 × 1,799 + 2 × 0.0963)
= Exp(4.3451)
= $77.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,238)
= Exp(a + b × X1,238 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9496 + 0.0007 × 1,799 – 2 × 0.0963)
= Exp(3.9600)
= $52.46
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 27.64% per annum.
- JOE price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $2.91 (5.46%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.