Stock Price Trends

Jacobs Solutions Inc. (J)

Jacobs Engineering Group Inc. (NYSE: J) is an American international technical professional services firm. The company provides technical, professional and construction services, as well as scientific and specialty consulting for a broad range of clients globally, including companies, organizations, and government agencies.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 32.62% per annum.
  • J price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $122.33 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 52.93% per annum.
  • J price at the close of April 24, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $2.76 (2.31%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of J price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: October 16, 2024
End date: April 24, 2025

a = 6.7494

b = -0.0011

s = 0.0308

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -32.62%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0308) – 1
= 13.10%

October 16, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,126)
= Exp(a + b × X1,126 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,633 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7494 + -0.0011 × 1,633 + 2 × 0.0308)
= Exp(5.0443)
= $155.13

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,126)
= Exp(a + b × X1,126 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,633 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7494 + -0.0011 × 1,633 – 2 × 0.0308)
= Exp(4.9212)
= $137.17

April 24, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7494 + -0.0011 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0308)
= Exp(4.8387)
= $126.31

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7494 + -0.0011 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0308)
= Exp(4.7157)
= $111.68

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 32.62% per annum.
  • J price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $122.33 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: January 16, 2025
End date: April 24, 2025

a = 8.4998

b = -0.0021

s = 0.0237

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0021) – 1
= -52.93%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0237) – 1
= 9.95%

January 16, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,188)
= Exp(a + b × X1,188 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,725 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.4998 + -0.0021 × 1,725 + 2 × 0.0237)
= Exp(4.9862)
= $146.38

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,188)
= Exp(a + b × X1,188 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,725 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.4998 + -0.0021 × 1,725 – 2 × 0.0237)
= Exp(4.8914)
= $133.14

April 24, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.4998 + -0.0021 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0237)
= Exp(4.7839)
= $119.57

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.4998 + -0.0021 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0237)
= Exp(4.6891)
= $108.75

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 52.93% per annum.
  • J price at the close of April 24, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $2.76 (2.31%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.