Jacobs Solutions Inc. (J)
Jacobs Engineering Group Inc. (NYSE: J) is an American international technical professional services firm. The company provides technical, professional and construction services, as well as scientific and specialty consulting for a broad range of clients globally, including companies, organizations, and government agencies.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 6.74% per annum.
- J price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $133.52 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $36.23 (37.25%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 17.60% per annum.
- J price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of J price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 8, 2021
End date: July 20, 2023
a = 4.8226
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0522
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -6.74%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0522) – 1
= 23.20%
March 8, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y324)
= Exp(a + b × X324 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 474 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8226 + -0.0002 × 474 + 2 × 0.0522)
= Exp(4.8363)
= $126.00
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y324)
= Exp(a + b × X324 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 474 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8226 + -0.0002 × 474 – 2 × 0.0522)
= Exp(4.6276)
= $102.27
July 20, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y920)
= Exp(a + b × X920 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,338 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8226 + -0.0002 × 1,338 + 2 × 0.0522)
= Exp(4.6710)
= $106.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y920)
= Exp(a + b × X920 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,338 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8226 + -0.0002 × 1,338 – 2 × 0.0522)
= Exp(4.4623)
= $86.69
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 6.74% per annum.
- J price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $133.52 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $36.23 (37.25%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 13, 2022
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 4.0595
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0520
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 17.60%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0520) – 1
= 23.13%
September 13, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y707)
= Exp(a + b × X707 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,028 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0595 + 0.0004 × 1,028 + 2 × 0.0520)
= Exp(4.6201)
= $101.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y707)
= Exp(a + b × X707 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,028 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0595 + 0.0004 × 1,028 – 2 × 0.0520)
= Exp(4.4120)
= $82.44
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0595 + 0.0004 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0520)
= Exp(4.9745)
= $144.68
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0595 + 0.0004 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0520)
= Exp(4.7665)
= $117.50
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 17.60% per annum.
- J price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.