Stock Price Trends

Jacobs Solutions Inc. (J)

Jacobs Engineering Group Inc. (NYSE: J) is an American international technical professional services firm. The company provides technical, professional and construction services, as well as scientific and specialty consulting for a broad range of clients globally, including companies, organizations, and government agencies.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 62.58% per annum.
  • J price at the close of April 1, 2025 was $121.98 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.01 (2.53%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 10.64% per annum.
  • J price at the close of April 1, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of J price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: January 16, 2025
End date: March 18, 2025

a = 9.6679

b = -0.0027

s = 0.0129

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0027) – 1
= -62.58%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0129) – 1
= 5.28%

January 16, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,204)
= Exp(a + b × X1,204 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,750 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.6679 + -0.0027 × 1,750 + 2 × 0.0129)
= Exp(4.9808)
= $145.60

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,204)
= Exp(a + b × X1,204 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,750 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.6679 + -0.0027 × 1,750 – 2 × 0.0129)
= Exp(4.9294)
= $138.30

March 18, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,245)
= Exp(a + b × X1,245 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.6679 + -0.0027 × 1,811 + 2 × 0.0129)
= Exp(4.8166)
= $123.54

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,245)
= Exp(a + b × X1,245 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.6679 + -0.0027 × 1,811 – 2 × 0.0129)
= Exp(4.7651)
= $117.35

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 62.58% per annum.
  • J price at the close of April 1, 2025 was $121.98 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.01 (2.53%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: March 4, 2025
End date: April 1, 2025

a = 5.3668

b = -0.0003

s = 0.0108

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -10.64%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0108) – 1
= 4.43%

March 4, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,235)
= Exp(a + b × X1,235 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,797 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3668 + -0.0003 × 1,797 + 2 × 0.0108)
= Exp(4.8349)
= $125.83

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,235)
= Exp(a + b × X1,235 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,797 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3668 + -0.0003 × 1,797 – 2 × 0.0108)
= Exp(4.7915)
= $120.48

April 1, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3668 + -0.0003 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0108)
= Exp(4.8263)
= $124.74

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3668 + -0.0003 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0108)
= Exp(4.7829)
= $119.45

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 10.64% per annum.
  • J price at the close of April 1, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.