Stock Price Trends

Jacobs Solutions Inc. (J)

Jacobs Engineering Group Inc. (NYSE: J) is an American international technical professional services firm. The company provides technical, professional and construction services, as well as scientific and specialty consulting for a broad range of clients globally, including companies, organizations, and government agencies.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 28.84% per annum.
  • J price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $124.52 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 54.41% per annum.
  • J price at the close of April 2, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.23 (0.99%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of J price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: October 16, 2024
End date: April 2, 2025

a = 6.5190

b = -0.0009

s = 0.0270

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -28.84%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0270) – 1
= 11.42%

October 16, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,141)
= Exp(a + b × X1,141 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,657 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5190 + -0.0009 × 1,657 + 2 × 0.0270)
= Exp(5.0283)
= $152.68

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,141)
= Exp(a + b × X1,141 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,657 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5190 + -0.0009 × 1,657 – 2 × 0.0270)
= Exp(4.9202)
= $137.03

April 2, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5190 + -0.0009 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0270)
= Exp(4.8717)
= $130.55

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5190 + -0.0009 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0270)
= Exp(4.7636)
= $117.17

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 28.84% per annum.
  • J price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $124.52 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: January 16, 2025
End date: April 2, 2025

a = 8.7068

b = -0.0022

s = 0.0178

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0022) – 1
= -54.41%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0178) – 1
= 7.39%

January 16, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,203)
= Exp(a + b × X1,203 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,749 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.7068 + -0.0022 × 1,749 + 2 × 0.0178)
= Exp(4.9781)
= $145.20

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,203)
= Exp(a + b × X1,203 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,749 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.7068 + -0.0022 × 1,749 – 2 × 0.0178)
= Exp(4.9069)
= $135.22

April 2, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.7068 + -0.0022 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0178)
= Exp(4.8146)
= $123.29

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.7068 + -0.0022 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0178)
= Exp(4.7433)
= $114.81

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 54.41% per annum.
  • J price at the close of April 2, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.23 (0.99%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.