Comfort Systems USA Inc (FIX)
Comfort Systems USA, Inc. provides mechanical and electrical installation, renovation, maintenance, repair and replacement services for the mechanical and electrical service industry in the United States. The company is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 91.97% per annum.
- FIX price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $322.33 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $108.29 (25.15%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 68.15% per annum.
- FIX price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FIX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 22, 2022
End date: February 11, 2025
a = 2.9882
b = 0.0018
s = 0.0918
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0018) – 1
= 91.97%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0918) – 1
= 44.39%
April 22, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y519)
= Exp(a + b × X519 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 751 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9882 + 0.0018 × 751 + 2 × 0.0918)
= Exp(4.5137)
= $91.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y519)
= Exp(a + b × X519 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 751 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9882 + 0.0018 × 751 – 2 × 0.0918)
= Exp(4.1463)
= $63.20
February 11, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,222)
= Exp(a + b × X1,222 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,777 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9882 + 0.0018 × 1,777 + 2 × 0.0918)
= Exp(6.3468)
= $570.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,222)
= Exp(a + b × X1,222 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,777 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9882 + 0.0018 × 1,777 – 2 × 0.0918)
= Exp(5.9795)
= $395.23
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 91.97% per annum.
- FIX price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $322.33 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $108.29 (25.15%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 19, 2024
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 11.5538
b = -0.0031
s = 0.0854
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0031) – 1
= -68.15%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0854) – 1
= 40.72%
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,167)
= Exp(a + b × X1,167 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,693 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.5538 + -0.0031 × 1,693 + 2 × 0.0854)
= Exp(6.4172)
= $612.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,167)
= Exp(a + b × X1,167 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,693 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.5538 + -0.0031 × 1,693 – 2 × 0.0854)
= Exp(6.0756)
= $435.11
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.5538 + -0.0031 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0854)
= Exp(6.0034)
= $404.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.5538 + -0.0031 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0854)
= Exp(5.6618)
= $287.66
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 68.15% per annum.
- FIX price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.