Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG)
Harley-Davidson, Inc. manufactures and sells custom, cruiser and touring motorcycles. The company is headquartered in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 19.51% per annum.
- HOG price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $32.49 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $10.06 (44.88%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 2.06% per annum.
- HOG price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HOG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 31, 2021
End date: July 27, 2022
a = 4.0518
b = -0.0006
s = 0.0720
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -19.51%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0720) – 1
= 33.39%
March 31, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y340)
= Exp(a + b × X340 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 496 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0518 + -0.0006 × 496 + 2 × 0.0720)
= Exp(3.9010)
= $49.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y340)
= Exp(a + b × X340 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 496 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0518 + -0.0006 × 496 – 2 × 0.0720)
= Exp(3.6129)
= $37.07
July 27, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y673)
= Exp(a + b × X673 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 979 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0518 + -0.0006 × 979 + 2 × 0.0720)
= Exp(3.6138)
= $37.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y673)
= Exp(a + b × X673 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 979 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0518 + -0.0006 × 979 – 2 × 0.0720)
= Exp(3.3257)
= $27.82
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 19.51% per annum.
- HOG price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $32.49 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $10.06 (44.88%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 13, 2021
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 3.6483
b = -0.0001
s = 0.1085
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -2.06%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1085) – 1
= 54.36%
July 13, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y411)
= Exp(a + b × X411 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 600 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6483 + -0.0001 × 600 + 2 × 0.1085)
= Exp(3.8312)
= $46.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y411)
= Exp(a + b × X411 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 600 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6483 + -0.0001 × 600 – 2 × 0.1085)
= Exp(3.3971)
= $29.88
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6483 + -0.0001 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1085)
= Exp(3.7614)
= $43.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6483 + -0.0001 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1085)
= Exp(3.3273)
= $27.86
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 2.06% per annum.
- HOG price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.