Stock Price Trends

Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastructure Capital Inc (HASI)

Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastructure Capital, Inc. provides capital and services to the energy efficiency, renewable energy, and other sustainable infrastructure markets in the United States. The company is headquartered in Annapolis, Maryland.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 70.53% per annum.
  • HASI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $27.75 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.05 (6.89%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 16.10% per annum.
  • HASI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.36 (4.66%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HASI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: August 7, 2023
End date: November 7, 2024

a = 0.9284

b = 0.0015

s = 0.1019

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0015) – 1
= 70.53%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1019) – 1
= 50.35%

August 7, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y932)
= Exp(a + b × X932 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,356 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.9284 + 0.0015 × 1,356 + 2 × 0.1019)
= Exp(3.1151)
= $22.54

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y932)
= Exp(a + b × X932 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,356 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.9284 + 0.0015 × 1,356 – 2 × 0.1019)
= Exp(2.7073)
= $14.99

November 7, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,814 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.9284 + 0.0015 × 1,814 + 2 × 0.1019)
= Exp(3.7849)
= $44.03

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,814 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.9284 + 0.0015 × 1,814 – 2 × 0.1019)
= Exp(3.3771)
= $29.29

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 70.53% per annum.
  • HASI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $27.75 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.05 (6.89%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: May 8, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024

a = 2.7508

b = 0.0004

s = 0.0633

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 16.10%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0633) – 1
= 28.81%

May 8, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,122)
= Exp(a + b × X1,122 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,631 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7508 + 0.0004 × 1,631 + 2 × 0.0633)
= Exp(3.5444)
= $34.62

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,122)
= Exp(a + b × X1,122 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,631 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7508 + 0.0004 × 1,631 – 2 × 0.0633)
= Exp(3.2912)
= $26.87

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7508 + 0.0004 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0633)
= Exp(3.6241)
= $37.49

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7508 + 0.0004 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0633)
= Exp(3.3709)
= $29.11

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 16.10% per annum.
  • HASI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.36 (4.66%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.

See Also

Symbol

Company name

EFC
Ellington Financial Inc.