Stock Price Trends

General Motors Company (GM)

General Motors Company (GM) is an American multinational corporation headquartered in Detroit, Michigan that designs, manufactures, markets, and distributes vehicles and vehicle parts, and sells financial services, with global headquarters in Detroit's Renaissance Center.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 56.70% per annum.
  • GM price at the close of January 27, 2025 was $54.92 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 33.76% per annum.
  • GM price at the close of January 27, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.33 (0.60%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: August 15, 2023
End date: January 27, 2025

a = 1.8010

b = 0.0012

s = 0.0774

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 56.70%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0774) – 1
= 36.27%

August 15, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y893)
= Exp(a + b × X893 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,295 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8010 + 0.0012 × 1,295 + 2 × 0.0774)
= Exp(3.5493)
= $34.79

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y893)
= Exp(a + b × X893 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,295 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8010 + 0.0012 × 1,295 – 2 × 0.0774)
= Exp(3.2398)
= $25.53

January 27, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8010 + 0.0012 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0774)
= Exp(4.2028)
= $66.87

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8010 + 0.0012 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0774)
= Exp(3.8933)
= $49.07

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 56.70% per annum.
  • GM price at the close of January 27, 2025 was $54.92 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: November 6, 2024
End date: January 27, 2025

a = 5.9953

b = -0.0011

s = 0.0327

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -33.76%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0327) – 1
= 13.95%

November 6, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,203)
= Exp(a + b × X1,203 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,744 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9953 + -0.0011 × 1,744 + 2 × 0.0327)
= Exp(4.0924)
= $59.89

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,203)
= Exp(a + b × X1,203 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,744 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9953 + -0.0011 × 1,744 – 2 × 0.0327)
= Exp(3.9618)
= $52.55

January 27, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9953 + -0.0011 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0327)
= Exp(3.9999)
= $54.59

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9953 + -0.0011 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0327)
= Exp(3.8693)
= $47.91

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 33.76% per annum.
  • GM price at the close of January 27, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.33 (0.60%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.