Stock Price Trends

Ford Motor Company (F)

Ford Motor Company, commonly known as Ford, is an American multinational automaker that has its main headquarters in Dearborn, Michigan.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 7.22% per annum.
  • F price at the close of January 27, 2025 was $10.38 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 23.51% per annum.
  • F price at the close of January 27, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of F price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: May 26, 2021
End date: January 27, 2025

a = 2.7178

b = -0.0002

s = 0.1312

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -7.22%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1312) – 1
= 69.00%

May 26, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y335)
= Exp(a + b × X335 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 484 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7178 + -0.0002 × 484 + 2 × 0.1312)
= Exp(2.8807)
= $17.83

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y335)
= Exp(a + b × X335 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 484 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7178 + -0.0002 × 484 – 2 × 0.1312)
= Exp(2.3560)
= $10.55

January 27, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7178 + -0.0002 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1312)
= Exp(2.6050)
= $13.53

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7178 + -0.0002 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1312)
= Exp(2.0803)
= $8.01

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 7.22% per annum.
  • F price at the close of January 27, 2025 was $10.38 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: March 20, 2024
End date: January 27, 2025

a = 3.6358

b = -0.0007

s = 0.0615

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -23.51%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0615) – 1
= 27.89%

March 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,043)
= Exp(a + b × X1,043 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,513 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6358 + -0.0007 × 1,513 + 2 × 0.0615)
= Exp(2.6479)
= $14.12

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,043)
= Exp(a + b × X1,043 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,513 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6358 + -0.0007 × 1,513 – 2 × 0.0615)
= Exp(2.4019)
= $11.04

January 27, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6358 + -0.0007 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0615)
= Exp(2.4181)
= $11.22

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6358 + -0.0007 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0615)
= Exp(2.1721)
= $8.78

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 23.51% per annum.
  • F price at the close of January 27, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.