National Beverage Corp (FIZZ)
National Beverage Corp.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 2.02% per annum.
- FIZZ price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $47.39 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 97.45% per annum.
- FIZZ price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FIZZ price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 2, 2021
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 3.7359
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0769
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 2.02%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0769) – 1
= 36.03%
February 2, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y300)
= Exp(a + b × X300 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 439 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7359 + 0.0001 × 439 + 2 × 0.0769)
= Exp(3.9138)
= $50.09
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y300)
= Exp(a + b × X300 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 439 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7359 + 0.0001 × 439 – 2 × 0.0769)
= Exp(3.6061)
= $36.82
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7359 + 0.0001 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0769)
= Exp(3.9897)
= $54.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7359 + 0.0001 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0769)
= Exp(3.6820)
= $39.73
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 2.02% per annum.
- FIZZ price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $47.39 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 3, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 0.4825
b = 0.0019
s = 0.0225
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0019) – 1
= 97.45%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0225) – 1
= 9.44%
October 3, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,223)
= Exp(a + b × X1,223 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,778 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.4825 + 0.0019 × 1,778 + 2 × 0.0225)
= Exp(3.8415)
= $46.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,223)
= Exp(a + b × X1,223 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,778 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.4825 + 0.0019 × 1,778 – 2 × 0.0225)
= Exp(3.7513)
= $42.58
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.4825 + 0.0019 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0225)
= Exp(3.9309)
= $50.95
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.4825 + 0.0019 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0225)
= Exp(3.8407)
= $46.56
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 97.45% per annum.
- FIZZ price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.