Stock Price Trends

Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc (FCX)

Freeport-McMoRan Inc., often called Freeport, is an American mining company based in the Freeport-McMoRan Center, in Phoenix, Arizona.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 8.28% per annum.
  • FCX price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $43.70 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 21.33% per annum.
  • FCX price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FCX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: January 6, 2021
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 3.3921

b = 0.0002

s = 0.1356

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 8.28%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1356) – 1
= 72.04%

January 6, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y282)
= Exp(a + b × X282 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 412 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3921 + 0.0002 × 412 + 2 × 0.1356)
= Exp(3.7531)
= $42.65

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y282)
= Exp(a + b × X282 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 412 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3921 + 0.0002 × 412 – 2 × 0.1356)
= Exp(3.2106)
= $24.79

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3921 + 0.0002 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1356)
= Exp(4.0613)
= $58.05

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3921 + 0.0002 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1356)
= Exp(3.5188)
= $33.74

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 8.28% per annum.
  • FCX price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $43.70 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: June 17, 2022
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 2.9249

b = 0.0005

s = 0.1084

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 21.33%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1084) – 1
= 54.31%

June 17, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y647)
= Exp(a + b × X647 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 939 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9249 + 0.0005 × 939 + 2 × 0.1084)
= Exp(3.6392)
= $38.06

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y647)
= Exp(a + b × X647 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 939 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9249 + 0.0005 × 939 – 2 × 0.1084)
= Exp(3.2055)
= $24.67

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9249 + 0.0005 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1084)
= Exp(4.1091)
= $60.89

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9249 + 0.0005 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1084)
= Exp(3.6754)
= $39.46

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 21.33% per annum.
  • FCX price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.