Deluxe Corporation (DLX)
Deluxe Corporation provides technology-based solutions for small businesses and financial institutions in the United States, Canada, Australia, South America, and Europe. The company is headquartered in Shoreview, Minnesota.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 18.19% per annum.
- DLX price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $22.76 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 20.30% per annum.
- DLX price at the close of November 19, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.49 (2.22%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DLX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 2, 2022
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 2.2160
b = 0.0005
s = 0.0903
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 18.19%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0903) – 1
= 43.48%
September 2, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y701)
= Exp(a + b × X701 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,017 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2160 + 0.0005 × 1,017 + 2 × 0.0903)
= Exp(2.8622)
= $17.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y701)
= Exp(a + b × X701 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,017 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2160 + 0.0005 × 1,017 – 2 × 0.0903)
= Exp(2.5011)
= $12.20
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2160 + 0.0005 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0903)
= Exp(3.2326)
= $25.34
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2160 + 0.0005 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0903)
= Exp(2.8715)
= $17.66
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 18.19% per annum.
- DLX price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $22.76 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 2, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 4.0974
b = -0.0006
s = 0.0703
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -20.30%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0703) – 1
= 32.48%
May 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,118)
= Exp(a + b × X1,118 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,625 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0974 + -0.0006 × 1,625 + 2 × 0.0703)
= Exp(3.2280)
= $25.23
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,118)
= Exp(a + b × X1,118 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,625 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0974 + -0.0006 × 1,625 – 2 × 0.0703)
= Exp(2.9467)
= $19.04
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0974 + -0.0006 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0703)
= Exp(3.1030)
= $22.27
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0974 + -0.0006 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0703)
= Exp(2.8218)
= $16.81
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 20.30% per annum.
- DLX price at the close of November 19, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.49 (2.22%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.