Stock Price Trends

Citigroup Inc (C)

Citigroup Inc. is an American multinational investment bank and financial services corporation headquartered in New York City. The company was formed by the merger of banking giant Citicorp and financial conglomerate Travelers Group in 1998; Travelers was subsequently spun off from the company in 2002. Citigroup owns Citicorp, the holding company for Citibank, as well as several international subsidiaries. Citigroup is incorporated in Delaware.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 82.02% per annum.
  • C price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $68.60 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.87 (5.35%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 8.91% per annum.
  • C price at the close of November 19, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.11 (1.64%).

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of C price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: August 2, 2023
End date: July 31, 2024

a = 1.4060

b = 0.0016

s = 0.0596

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0016) – 1
= 82.02%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0596) – 1
= 26.93%

August 2, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y929)
= Exp(a + b × X929 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,351 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4060 + 0.0016 × 1,351 + 2 × 0.0596)
= Exp(3.7422)
= $42.19

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y929)
= Exp(a + b × X929 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,351 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4060 + 0.0016 × 1,351 – 2 × 0.0596)
= Exp(3.5038)
= $33.24

July 31, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,179)
= Exp(a + b × X1,179 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,715 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4060 + 0.0016 × 1,715 + 2 × 0.0596)
= Exp(4.3395)
= $76.67

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,179)
= Exp(a + b × X1,179 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,715 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4060 + 0.0016 × 1,715 – 2 × 0.0596)
= Exp(4.1011)
= $60.41

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 82.02% per annum.
  • C price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $68.60 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.87 (5.35%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: March 6, 2024
End date: November 5, 2024

a = 3.7099

b = 0.0002

s = 0.0375

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 8.91%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0375) – 1
= 16.17%

March 6, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,078)
= Exp(a + b × X1,078 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,568 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7099 + 0.0002 × 1,568 + 2 × 0.0375)
= Exp(4.1516)
= $63.54

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,078)
= Exp(a + b × X1,078 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,568 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7099 + 0.0002 × 1,568 – 2 × 0.0375)
= Exp(4.0018)
= $54.70

November 5, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7099 + 0.0002 × 1,812 + 2 × 0.0375)
= Exp(4.2087)
= $67.27

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7099 + 0.0002 × 1,812 – 2 × 0.0375)
= Exp(4.0589)
= $57.91

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 8.91% per annum.
  • C price at the close of November 19, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.11 (1.64%).