Stock Price Trends

Bath & Body Works Inc. (BBWI)

None

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 13.11% per annum.
  • BBWI price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $30.51 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 58.66% per annum.
  • BBWI price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BBWI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 12, 2021
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 4.1726

b = -0.0004

s = 0.1953

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -13.11%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1953) – 1
= 118.45%

March 12, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y327)
= Exp(a + b × X327 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 477 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1726 + -0.0004 × 477 + 2 × 0.1953)
= Exp(4.3796)
= $79.81

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y327)
= Exp(a + b × X327 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 477 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1726 + -0.0004 × 477 – 2 × 0.1953)
= Exp(3.5983)
= $36.54

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1726 + -0.0004 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1953)
= Exp(3.8603)
= $47.48

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1726 + -0.0004 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1953)
= Exp(3.0789)
= $21.73

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 13.11% per annum.
  • BBWI price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $30.51 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: March 18, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 7.7352

b = -0.0024

s = 0.0815

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0024) – 1
= -58.66%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0815) – 1
= 38.54%

March 18, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,085)
= Exp(a + b × X1,085 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,579 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7352 + -0.0024 × 1,579 + 2 × 0.0815)
= Exp(4.0770)
= $58.97

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,085)
= Exp(a + b × X1,085 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,579 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7352 + -0.0024 × 1,579 – 2 × 0.0815)
= Exp(3.7510)
= $42.56

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7352 + -0.0024 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0815)
= Exp(3.4793)
= $32.44

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7352 + -0.0024 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0815)
= Exp(3.1533)
= $23.41

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 58.66% per annum.
  • BBWI price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.