AZZ Incorporated (AZZ)
AZZ Inc. provides metal plating and plating solutions, welding solutions, specialized electrical equipment, and engineering services for the power generation, transmission, distribution, refining, and industrial markets in the United States and internationally. The company is headquartered in Fort Worth, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 98.36% per annum.
- AZZ price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $86.92 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $5.05 (5.49%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 13.56% per annum.
- AZZ price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AZZ price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 10, 2023
End date: July 31, 2024
a = 1.2453
b = 0.0019
s = 0.0751
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0019) – 1
= 98.36%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0751) – 1
= 35.04%
March 10, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y830)
= Exp(a + b × X830 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,206 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2453 + 0.0019 × 1,206 + 2 × 0.0751)
= Exp(3.6585)
= $38.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y830)
= Exp(a + b × X830 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,206 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2453 + 0.0019 × 1,206 – 2 × 0.0751)
= Exp(3.3581)
= $28.73
July 31, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,179)
= Exp(a + b × X1,179 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,715 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2453 + 0.0019 × 1,715 + 2 × 0.0751)
= Exp(4.6136)
= $100.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,179)
= Exp(a + b × X1,179 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,715 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2453 + 0.0019 × 1,715 – 2 × 0.0751)
= Exp(4.3132)
= $74.68
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 98.36% per annum.
- AZZ price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $86.92 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $5.05 (5.49%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 14, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 3.7660
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0435
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 13.56%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0435) – 1
= 19.00%
February 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,064)
= Exp(a + b × X1,064 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,547 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7660 + 0.0003 × 1,547 + 2 × 0.0435)
= Exp(4.3920)
= $80.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,064)
= Exp(a + b × X1,064 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,547 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7660 + 0.0003 × 1,547 – 2 × 0.0435)
= Exp(4.2181)
= $67.90
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7660 + 0.0003 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0435)
= Exp(4.4893)
= $89.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7660 + 0.0003 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0435)
= Exp(4.3153)
= $74.84
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 13.56% per annum.
- AZZ price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.