Valero Energy Corporation (VLO)
Valero Energy Corporation is a Fortune 500 international manufacturer and marketer of transportation fuels, other petrochemical products, and power. It is headquartered in San Antonio, Texas, United States.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 29.94% per annum.
- VLO price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $132.07 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $8.47 (6.86%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 7.00% per annum.
- VLO price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of VLO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 13, 2024
End date: January 10, 2025
a = 6.5197
b = -0.0010
s = 0.0381
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -29.94%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0381) – 1
= 16.46%
March 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y993)
= Exp(a + b × X993 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,442 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5197 + -0.0010 × 1,442 + 2 × 0.0381)
= Exp(5.1903)
= $179.53
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y993)
= Exp(a + b × X993 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,442 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5197 + -0.0010 × 1,442 – 2 × 0.0381)
= Exp(5.0380)
= $154.16
January 10, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,201)
= Exp(a + b × X1,201 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,745 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5197 + -0.0010 × 1,745 + 2 × 0.0381)
= Exp(4.8950)
= $133.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,201)
= Exp(a + b × X1,201 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,745 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5197 + -0.0010 × 1,745 – 2 × 0.0381)
= Exp(4.7426)
= $114.74
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 29.94% per annum.
- VLO price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $132.07 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $8.47 (6.86%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 20, 2024
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 5.2288
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0448
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -7.00%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0448) – 1
= 19.62%
August 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,103)
= Exp(a + b × X1,103 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,602 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2288 + -0.0002 × 1,602 + 2 × 0.0448)
= Exp(4.9999)
= $148.41
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,103)
= Exp(a + b × X1,103 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,602 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2288 + -0.0002 × 1,602 – 2 × 0.0448)
= Exp(4.8208)
= $124.06
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2288 + -0.0002 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0448)
= Exp(4.9556)
= $141.97
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2288 + -0.0002 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0448)
= Exp(4.7765)
= $118.68
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 7.00% per annum.
- VLO price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.