Valero Energy Corporation (VLO)
Valero Energy Corporation is a Fortune 500 international manufacturer and marketer of transportation fuels, other petrochemical products, and power. It is headquartered in San Antonio, Texas, United States.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 32.07% per annum.
- VLO price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $141.20 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.90 (2.10%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 596.91% per annum.
- VLO price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of VLO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 15, 2024
End date: November 12, 2024
a = 6.7985
b = -0.0011
s = 0.0328
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -32.07%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0328) – 1
= 14.02%
March 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,084)
= Exp(a + b × X1,084 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,576 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7985 + -0.0011 × 1,576 + 2 × 0.0328)
= Exp(5.1943)
= $180.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,084)
= Exp(a + b × X1,084 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,576 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7985 + -0.0011 × 1,576 – 2 × 0.0328)
= Exp(5.0630)
= $158.07
November 12, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,818 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7985 + -0.0011 × 1,818 + 2 × 0.0328)
= Exp(4.9379)
= $139.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,818 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7985 + -0.0011 × 1,818 – 2 × 0.0328)
= Exp(4.8066)
= $122.32
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 32.07% per annum.
- VLO price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $141.20 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.90 (2.10%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 29, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = -4.7493
b = 0.0053
s = 0.0134
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0053) – 1
= 596.91%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0134) – 1
= 5.52%
October 29, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,804 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.7493 + 0.0053 × 1,804 + 2 × 0.0134)
= Exp(4.8733)
= $130.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,804 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.7493 + 0.0053 × 1,804 – 2 × 0.0134)
= Exp(4.8196)
= $123.91
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.7493 + 0.0053 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0134)
= Exp(4.9903)
= $146.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.7493 + 0.0053 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0134)
= Exp(4.9366)
= $139.30
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 596.91% per annum.
- VLO price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.