Par Pacific Holdings Inc (PARR)
Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. owns and operates energy and infrastructure businesses. The company is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 58.65% per annum.
- PARR price at the close of April 4, 2025 was $12.92 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 37.24% per annum.
- PARR price at the close of April 4, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PARR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 18, 2023
End date: April 4, 2025
a = 6.9781
b = -0.0024
s = 0.0936
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0024) – 1
= -58.65%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0936) – 1
= 45.41%
December 18, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y932)
= Exp(a + b × X932 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,351 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9781 + -0.0024 × 1,351 + 2 × 0.0936)
= Exp(3.8966)
= $49.23
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y932)
= Exp(a + b × X932 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,351 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9781 + -0.0024 × 1,351 – 2 × 0.0936)
= Exp(3.5222)
= $33.86
April 4, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9781 + -0.0024 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0936)
= Exp(2.7522)
= $15.68
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9781 + -0.0024 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0936)
= Exp(2.3778)
= $10.78
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 58.65% per annum.
- PARR price at the close of April 4, 2025 was $12.92 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 6, 2024
End date: April 4, 2025
a = 4.9927
b = -0.0013
s = 0.0705
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0013) – 1
= -37.24%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0705) – 1
= 32.58%
September 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,112)
= Exp(a + b × X1,112 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,614 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9927 + -0.0013 × 1,614 + 2 × 0.0705)
= Exp(3.0738)
= $21.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,112)
= Exp(a + b × X1,112 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,614 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9927 + -0.0013 × 1,614 – 2 × 0.0705)
= Exp(2.7918)
= $16.31
April 4, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9927 + -0.0013 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0705)
= Exp(2.8058)
= $16.54
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9927 + -0.0013 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0705)
= Exp(2.5238)
= $12.48
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 37.24% per annum.
- PARR price at the close of April 4, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.