Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC)
Marathon Petroleum Corporation is an American petroleum refining, marketing, and transportation company headquartered in Findlay, Ohio.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 30.79% per annum.
- MPC price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $159.38 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 580.79% per annum.
- MPC price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MPC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 13, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 6.8630
b = -0.0010
s = 0.0450
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -30.79%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0450) – 1
= 19.71%
March 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,082)
= Exp(a + b × X1,082 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,574 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8630 + -0.0010 × 1,574 + 2 × 0.0450)
= Exp(5.3658)
= $213.97
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,082)
= Exp(a + b × X1,082 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,574 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8630 + -0.0010 × 1,574 – 2 × 0.0450)
= Exp(5.1859)
= $178.74
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8630 + -0.0010 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0450)
= Exp(5.1117)
= $165.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8630 + -0.0010 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0450)
= Exp(4.9318)
= $138.64
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 30.79% per annum.
- MPC price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $159.38 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 29, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = -4.5129
b = 0.0053
s = 0.0155
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0053) – 1
= 580.79%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0155) – 1
= 6.39%
October 29, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,804 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.5129 + 0.0053 × 1,804 + 2 × 0.0155)
= Exp(4.9981)
= $148.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,804 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.5129 + 0.0053 × 1,804 – 2 × 0.0155)
= Exp(4.9362)
= $139.24
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.5129 + 0.0053 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0155)
= Exp(5.1138)
= $166.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.5129 + 0.0053 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0155)
= Exp(5.0518)
= $156.31
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 580.79% per annum.
- MPC price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.