Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC)
Marathon Petroleum Corporation is an American petroleum refining, marketing, and transportation company headquartered in Findlay, Ohio.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 25.67% per annum.
- MPC price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $147.90 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 20.46% per annum.
- MPC price at the close of April 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MPC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 8, 2024
End date: April 2, 2025
a = 6.4159
b = -0.0008
s = 0.0514
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -25.67%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0514) – 1
= 22.82%
March 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y988)
= Exp(a + b × X988 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,435 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4159 + -0.0008 × 1,435 + 2 × 0.0514)
= Exp(5.3525)
= $211.13
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y988)
= Exp(a + b × X988 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,435 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4159 + -0.0008 × 1,435 – 2 × 0.0514)
= Exp(5.1469)
= $171.90
April 2, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4159 + -0.0008 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0514)
= Exp(5.0355)
= $153.78
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4159 + -0.0008 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0514)
= Exp(4.8299)
= $125.20
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 25.67% per annum.
- MPC price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $147.90 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 12, 2024
End date: April 2, 2025
a = 4.0764
b = 0.0005
s = 0.0462
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 20.46%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0462) – 1
= 20.29%
December 12, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,181)
= Exp(a + b × X1,181 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,714 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0764 + 0.0005 × 1,714 + 2 × 0.0462)
= Exp(5.0428)
= $154.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,181)
= Exp(a + b × X1,181 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,714 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0764 + 0.0005 × 1,714 – 2 × 0.0462)
= Exp(4.8581)
= $128.78
April 2, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0764 + 0.0005 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0462)
= Exp(5.0995)
= $163.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0764 + 0.0005 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0462)
= Exp(4.9147)
= $136.29
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 20.46% per annum.
- MPC price at the close of April 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.