Phillips 66 (PSX)
The Phillips 66 Company is an American multinational energy company headquartered in Westchase, Houston, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 17.70% per annum.
- PSX price at the close of April 4, 2025 was $98.81 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $7.66 (7.19%).
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 54.52% per annum.
- PSX price at the close of April 4, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $21.25 (17.70%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PSX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 31, 2024
End date: April 3, 2025
a = 5.7427
b = -0.0005
s = 0.0508
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -17.70%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0508) – 1
= 22.54%
January 31, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y961)
= Exp(a + b × X961 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,395 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7427 + -0.0005 × 1,395 + 2 × 0.0508)
= Exp(5.1000)
= $164.02
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y961)
= Exp(a + b × X961 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,395 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7427 + -0.0005 × 1,395 – 2 × 0.0508)
= Exp(4.8968)
= $133.85
April 3, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7427 + -0.0005 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0508)
= Exp(4.8716)
= $130.53
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7427 + -0.0005 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0508)
= Exp(4.6684)
= $106.52
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 17.70% per annum.
- PSX price at the close of April 4, 2025 was $98.81 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $7.66 (7.19%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 16, 2024
End date: April 3, 2025
a = 2.6823
b = 0.0012
s = 0.0344
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 54.52%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0344) – 1
= 14.73%
December 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,182)
= Exp(a + b × X1,182 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,715 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6823 + 0.0012 × 1,715 + 2 × 0.0344)
= Exp(4.7955)
= $120.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,182)
= Exp(a + b × X1,182 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,715 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6823 + 0.0012 × 1,715 – 2 × 0.0344)
= Exp(4.6580)
= $105.43
April 3, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6823 + 0.0012 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0344)
= Exp(4.9242)
= $137.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6823 + 0.0012 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0344)
= Exp(4.7868)
= $119.92
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 54.52% per annum.
- PSX price at the close of April 4, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $21.25 (17.70%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.