Phillips 66 (PSX)
The Phillips 66 Company is an American multinational energy company headquartered in Westchase, Houston, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 26.48% per annum.
- PSX price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $131.45 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 471.07% per annum.
- PSX price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PSX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 7, 2024
End date: November 15, 2024
a = 6.3553
b = -0.0008
s = 0.0382
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -26.48%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0382) – 1
= 16.50%
March 7, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,078)
= Exp(a + b × X1,078 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,568 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3553 + -0.0008 × 1,568 + 2 × 0.0382)
= Exp(5.1102)
= $165.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,078)
= Exp(a + b × X1,078 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,568 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3553 + -0.0008 × 1,568 – 2 × 0.0382)
= Exp(4.9575)
= $142.24
November 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3553 + -0.0008 × 1,821 + 2 × 0.0382)
= Exp(4.8970)
= $133.89
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3553 + -0.0008 × 1,821 – 2 × 0.0382)
= Exp(4.7443)
= $114.93
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 26.48% per annum.
- PSX price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $131.45 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 30, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = -3.8319
b = 0.0048
s = 0.0122
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0048) – 1
= 471.07%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0122) – 1
= 5.01%
October 30, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,242)
= Exp(a + b × X1,242 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,805 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.8319 + 0.0048 × 1,805 + 2 × 0.0122)
= Exp(4.8088)
= $122.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,242)
= Exp(a + b × X1,242 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,805 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.8319 + 0.0048 × 1,805 – 2 × 0.0122)
= Exp(4.7600)
= $116.74
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.8319 + 0.0048 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0122)
= Exp(4.9091)
= $135.51
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.8319 + 0.0048 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0122)
= Exp(4.8602)
= $129.05
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 471.07% per annum.
- PSX price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.