Stock Price Trends

HF Sinclair Corp (DINO)

HF Sinclair Corporation is an independent energy company. The company is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 42.27% per annum.
  • DINO price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $42.33 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 490.15% per annum.
  • DINO price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DINO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 13, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 6.4685

b = -0.0015

s = 0.0322

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0015) – 1
= -42.27%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0322) – 1
= 13.73%

March 13, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,082)
= Exp(a + b × X1,082 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,574 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4685 + -0.0015 × 1,574 + 2 × 0.0322)
= Exp(4.1637)
= $64.31

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,082)
= Exp(a + b × X1,082 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,574 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4685 + -0.0015 × 1,574 – 2 × 0.0322)
= Exp(4.0350)
= $56.54

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4685 + -0.0015 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0322)
= Exp(3.7844)
= $44.01

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4685 + -0.0015 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0322)
= Exp(3.6557)
= $38.70

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 42.27% per annum.
  • DINO price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $42.33 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: October 31, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024

a = -5.1103

b = 0.0049

s = 0.0218

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0049) – 1
= 490.15%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0218) – 1
= 9.10%

October 31, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,806 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.1103 + 0.0049 × 1,806 + 2 × 0.0218)
= Exp(3.7169)
= $41.14

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,806 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.1103 + 0.0049 × 1,806 – 2 × 0.0218)
= Exp(3.6298)
= $37.70

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.1103 + 0.0049 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0218)
= Exp(3.8142)
= $45.34

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.1103 + 0.0049 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0218)
= Exp(3.7270)
= $41.56

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 490.15% per annum.
  • DINO price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.