CVR Energy Inc (CVI)
CVR Energy, Inc., is engaged in petroleum refining and nitrogen fertilizer manufacturing activities in the United States. The company is headquartered in Sugar Land, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 44.19% per annum.
- CVI price at the close of November 22, 2024 was $18.74 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.25 (1.34%).
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 7,909.31% per annum.
- CVI price at the close of November 22, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.76 (3.91%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CVI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 30, 2024
End date: October 28, 2024
a = 5.9796
b = -0.0016
s = 0.0604
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0016) – 1
= -44.19%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0604) – 1
= 27.35%
January 30, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,050)
= Exp(a + b × X1,050 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,527 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9796 + -0.0016 × 1,527 + 2 × 0.0604)
= Exp(3.6605)
= $38.88
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,050)
= Exp(a + b × X1,050 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,527 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9796 + -0.0016 × 1,527 – 2 × 0.0604)
= Exp(3.4187)
= $30.53
October 28, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,238)
= Exp(a + b × X1,238 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9796 + -0.0016 × 1,799 + 2 × 0.0604)
= Exp(3.2258)
= $25.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,238)
= Exp(a + b × X1,238 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9796 + -0.0016 × 1,799 – 2 × 0.0604)
= Exp(2.9841)
= $19.77
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 44.19% per annum.
- CVI price at the close of November 22, 2024 was $18.74 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.25 (1.34%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 31, 2024
End date: November 18, 2024
a = -18.8749
b = 0.0120
s = 0.0292
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0120) – 1
= 7,909.31%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0292) – 1
= 12.40%
October 31, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,802 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-18.8749 + 0.0120 × 1,802 + 2 × 0.0292)
= Exp(2.8233)
= $16.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,802 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-18.8749 + 0.0120 × 1,802 – 2 × 0.0292)
= Exp(2.7064)
= $14.97
November 18, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-18.8749 + 0.0120 × 1,820 + 2 × 0.0292)
= Exp(3.0394)
= $20.89
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-18.8749 + 0.0120 × 1,820 – 2 × 0.0292)
= Exp(2.9225)
= $18.59
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 7,909.31% per annum.
- CVI price at the close of November 22, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.76 (3.91%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.