Stock Price Trends

REX American Resources Corporation (REX)

REX American Resources Corporation, produces and sells ethanol in the United States. The company is headquartered in Dayton, Ohio.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 50.21% per annum.
  • REX price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $44.80 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.09 (7.42%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 0.71% per annum.
  • REX price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of REX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 28, 2024
End date: September 18, 2024

a = 7.1035

b = -0.0019

s = 0.0579

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0019) – 1
= -50.21%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0579) – 1
= 26.07%

March 28, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,093)
= Exp(a + b × X1,093 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,589 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1035 + -0.0019 × 1,589 + 2 × 0.0579)
= Exp(4.1834)
= $65.59

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,093)
= Exp(a + b × X1,093 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,589 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1035 + -0.0019 × 1,589 – 2 × 0.0579)
= Exp(3.9518)
= $52.03

September 18, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,212)
= Exp(a + b × X1,212 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,763 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1035 + -0.0019 × 1,763 + 2 × 0.0579)
= Exp(3.8510)
= $47.04

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,212)
= Exp(a + b × X1,212 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,763 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1035 + -0.0019 × 1,763 – 2 × 0.0579)
= Exp(3.6193)
= $37.31

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 50.21% per annum.
  • REX price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $44.80 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.09 (7.42%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: June 4, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 3.8551

b = 0.0000

s = 0.0358

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -0.71%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0358) – 1
= 15.37%

June 4, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,139)
= Exp(a + b × X1,139 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,657 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8551 + 0.0000 × 1,657 + 2 × 0.0358)
= Exp(3.8944)
= $49.13

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,139)
= Exp(a + b × X1,139 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,657 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8551 + 0.0000 × 1,657 – 2 × 0.0358)
= Exp(3.7514)
= $42.58

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8551 + 0.0000 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0358)
= Exp(3.8911)
= $48.96

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8551 + 0.0000 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0358)
= Exp(3.7481)
= $42.44

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 0.71% per annum.
  • REX price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.