Helen of Troy Ltd (HELE)
Helen of Troy Limited designs, develops, imports, markets and distributes a portfolio of consumer products globally. The company is headquartered in El Paso, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 63.76% per annum.
- HELE price at the close of March 5, 2025 was $55.09 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $27.13 (97.01%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 40.54% per annum.
- HELE price at the close of March 5, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $4.41 (7.41%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HELE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 10, 2023
End date: November 13, 2023
a = 8.3338
b = -0.0028
s = 0.0359
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0028) – 1
= -63.76%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0359) – 1
= 15.43%
July 10, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y840)
= Exp(a + b × X840 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,221 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.3338 + -0.0028 × 1,221 + 2 × 0.0359)
= Exp(5.0104)
= $149.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y840)
= Exp(a + b × X840 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,221 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.3338 + -0.0028 × 1,221 – 2 × 0.0359)
= Exp(4.8669)
= $129.92
November 13, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y929)
= Exp(a + b × X929 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,347 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.3338 + -0.0028 × 1,347 + 2 × 0.0359)
= Exp(4.6600)
= $105.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y929)
= Exp(a + b × X929 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,347 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.3338 + -0.0028 × 1,347 – 2 × 0.0359)
= Exp(4.5165)
= $91.52
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 63.76% per annum.
- HELE price at the close of March 5, 2025 was $55.09 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $27.13 (97.01%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 9, 2024
End date: January 31, 2025
a = 2.5474
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0815
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 40.54%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0815) – 1
= 38.51%
July 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,091)
= Exp(a + b × X1,091 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,586 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5474 + 0.0009 × 1,586 + 2 × 0.0815)
= Exp(4.1890)
= $65.95
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,091)
= Exp(a + b × X1,091 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,586 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5474 + 0.0009 × 1,586 – 2 × 0.0815)
= Exp(3.8632)
= $47.62
January 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,233)
= Exp(a + b × X1,233 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,792 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5474 + 0.0009 × 1,792 + 2 × 0.0815)
= Exp(4.3810)
= $79.92
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,233)
= Exp(a + b × X1,233 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,792 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5474 + 0.0009 × 1,792 – 2 × 0.0815)
= Exp(4.0552)
= $57.70
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 40.54% per annum.
- HELE price at the close of March 5, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $4.41 (7.41%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.