Helen of Troy Ltd (HELE)
Helen of Troy Limited designs, develops, imports, markets and distributes a portfolio of consumer products globally. The company is headquartered in El Paso, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 63.76% per annum.
- HELE price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $53.26 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $27.39 (105.89%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 19.39% per annum.
- HELE price at the close of April 2, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $19.47 (26.77%).
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HELE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 10, 2023
End date: November 13, 2023
a = 8.2560
b = -0.0028
s = 0.0359
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0028) – 1
= -63.76%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0359) – 1
= 15.43%
July 10, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y820)
= Exp(a + b × X820 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,193 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.2560 + -0.0028 × 1,193 + 2 × 0.0359)
= Exp(5.0104)
= $149.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y820)
= Exp(a + b × X820 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,193 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.2560 + -0.0028 × 1,193 – 2 × 0.0359)
= Exp(4.8669)
= $129.92
November 13, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y909)
= Exp(a + b × X909 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,319 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.2560 + -0.0028 × 1,319 + 2 × 0.0359)
= Exp(4.6600)
= $105.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y909)
= Exp(a + b × X909 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,319 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.2560 + -0.0028 × 1,319 – 2 × 0.0359)
= Exp(4.5165)
= $91.52
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 63.76% per annum.
- HELE price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $53.26 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $27.39 (105.89%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 10, 2023
End date: July 3, 2024
a = 5.5318
b = -0.0006
s = 0.0835
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -19.39%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0835) – 1
= 39.67%
July 10, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y820)
= Exp(a + b × X820 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,193 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5318 + -0.0006 × 1,193 + 2 × 0.0835)
= Exp(4.9942)
= $147.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y820)
= Exp(a + b × X820 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,193 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5318 + -0.0006 × 1,193 – 2 × 0.0835)
= Exp(4.6601)
= $105.64
July 3, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,068)
= Exp(a + b × X1,068 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,552 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5318 + -0.0006 × 1,552 + 2 × 0.0835)
= Exp(4.7822)
= $119.36
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,068)
= Exp(a + b × X1,068 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,552 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5318 + -0.0006 × 1,552 – 2 × 0.0835)
= Exp(4.4480)
= $85.46
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 19.39% per annum.
- HELE price at the close of April 2, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $19.47 (26.77%).