Stock Price Trends

Helen of Troy Ltd (HELE)

Helen of Troy Limited designs, develops, imports, markets and distributes a portfolio of consumer products globally. The company is headquartered in El Paso, Texas.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 53.65% per annum.
  • HELE price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $30.04 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.90 (5.94%).
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 99.92% per annum.
  • HELE price at the close of April 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HELE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: December 6, 2023
End date: April 24, 2025

a = 7.6367

b = -0.0021

s = 0.1662

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0021) – 1
= -53.65%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1662) – 1
= 94.38%

December 6, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y910)
= Exp(a + b × X910 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,318 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6367 + -0.0021 × 1,318 + 2 × 0.1662)
= Exp(5.1923)
= $179.88

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y910)
= Exp(a + b × X910 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,318 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6367 + -0.0021 × 1,318 – 2 × 0.1662)
= Exp(4.5276)
= $92.54

April 24, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6367 + -0.0021 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.1662)
= Exp(4.1284)
= $62.08

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6367 + -0.0021 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.1662)
= Exp(3.4637)
= $31.94

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 53.65% per annum.
  • HELE price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $30.04 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.90 (5.94%).

Secondary Trend

Start date: March 21, 2025
End date: April 24, 2025

a = 39.0293

b = -0.0195

s = 0.0817

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0195) – 1
= -99.92%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0817) – 1
= 38.65%

March 21, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,232)
= Exp(a + b × X1,232 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,789 + 2 × s)
= Exp(39.0293 + -0.0195 × 1,789 + 2 × 0.0817)
= Exp(4.2229)
= $68.23

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,232)
= Exp(a + b × X1,232 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,789 – 2 × s)
= Exp(39.0293 + -0.0195 × 1,789 – 2 × 0.0817)
= Exp(3.8960)
= $49.21

April 24, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(39.0293 + -0.0195 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0817)
= Exp(3.5583)
= $35.10

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(39.0293 + -0.0195 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0817)
= Exp(3.2314)
= $25.32

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 99.92% per annum.
  • HELE price at the close of April 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

See Also

Symbol

Company name

WHR
Whirlpool Corporation