Helen of Troy Ltd (HELE)
Helen of Troy Limited designs, develops, imports, markets and distributes a portfolio of consumer products globally. The company is headquartered in El Paso, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 7.75% per annum.
- HELE price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $66.80 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $202.50 (75.19%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 29.28% per annum.
- HELE price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HELE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 19, 2021
End date: January 19, 2022
a = 5.3063
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0419
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 7.75%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0419) – 1
= 18.22%
January 19, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y290)
= Exp(a + b × X290 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 425 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3063 + 0.0002 × 425 + 2 × 0.0419)
= Exp(5.4768)
= $239.09
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y290)
= Exp(a + b × X290 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 425 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3063 + 0.0002 × 425 – 2 × 0.0419)
= Exp(5.3094)
= $202.23
January 19, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y543)
= Exp(a + b × X543 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 790 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3063 + 0.0002 × 790 + 2 × 0.0419)
= Exp(5.5515)
= $257.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y543)
= Exp(a + b × X543 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 790 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3063 + 0.0002 × 790 – 2 × 0.0419)
= Exp(5.3840)
= $217.90
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 7.75% per annum.
- HELE price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $66.80 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $202.50 (75.19%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 19, 2021
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 5.9612
b = -0.0009
s = 0.2006
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -29.28%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.2006) – 1
= 123.12%
January 19, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y290)
= Exp(a + b × X290 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 425 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9612 + -0.0009 × 425 + 2 × 0.2006)
= Exp(5.9591)
= $387.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y290)
= Exp(a + b × X290 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 425 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9612 + -0.0009 × 425 – 2 × 0.2006)
= Exp(5.1566)
= $173.57
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9612 + -0.0009 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.2006)
= Exp(4.6294)
= $102.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9612 + -0.0009 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.2006)
= Exp(3.8269)
= $45.92
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 29.28% per annum.
- HELE price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.