Helen of Troy Ltd (HELE)
Helen of Troy Limited designs, develops, imports, markets and distributes a portfolio of consumer products globally. The company is headquartered in El Paso, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 53.65% per annum.
- HELE price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $30.04 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.90 (5.94%).
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 99.92% per annum.
- HELE price at the close of April 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HELE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 6, 2023
End date: April 24, 2025
a = 7.6367
b = -0.0021
s = 0.1662
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0021) – 1
= -53.65%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1662) – 1
= 94.38%
December 6, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y910)
= Exp(a + b × X910 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,318 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6367 + -0.0021 × 1,318 + 2 × 0.1662)
= Exp(5.1923)
= $179.88
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y910)
= Exp(a + b × X910 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,318 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6367 + -0.0021 × 1,318 – 2 × 0.1662)
= Exp(4.5276)
= $92.54
April 24, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6367 + -0.0021 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.1662)
= Exp(4.1284)
= $62.08
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6367 + -0.0021 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.1662)
= Exp(3.4637)
= $31.94
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 53.65% per annum.
- HELE price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $30.04 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.90 (5.94%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 21, 2025
End date: April 24, 2025
a = 39.0293
b = -0.0195
s = 0.0817
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0195) – 1
= -99.92%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0817) – 1
= 38.65%
March 21, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,232)
= Exp(a + b × X1,232 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,789 + 2 × s)
= Exp(39.0293 + -0.0195 × 1,789 + 2 × 0.0817)
= Exp(4.2229)
= $68.23
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,232)
= Exp(a + b × X1,232 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,789 – 2 × s)
= Exp(39.0293 + -0.0195 × 1,789 – 2 × 0.0817)
= Exp(3.8960)
= $49.21
April 24, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(39.0293 + -0.0195 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0817)
= Exp(3.5583)
= $35.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(39.0293 + -0.0195 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0817)
= Exp(3.2314)
= $25.32
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 99.92% per annum.
- HELE price at the close of April 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.