Stock Price Trends

Helen of Troy Ltd (HELE)

Helen of Troy Limited designs, develops, imports, markets and distributes a portfolio of consumer products globally. The company is headquartered in El Paso, Texas.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 63.76% per annum.
  • HELE price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $53.49 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $27.48 (105.63%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 19.39% per annum.
  • HELE price at the close of March 31, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $19.33 (26.54%).

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HELE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: July 10, 2023
End date: November 13, 2023

a = 8.2615

b = -0.0028

s = 0.0359

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0028) – 1
= -63.76%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0359) – 1
= 15.43%

July 10, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y822)
= Exp(a + b × X822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,195 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.2615 + -0.0028 × 1,195 + 2 × 0.0359)
= Exp(5.0104)
= $149.96

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y822)
= Exp(a + b × X822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,195 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.2615 + -0.0028 × 1,195 – 2 × 0.0359)
= Exp(4.8669)
= $129.92

November 13, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y911)
= Exp(a + b × X911 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,321 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.2615 + -0.0028 × 1,321 + 2 × 0.0359)
= Exp(4.6600)
= $105.64

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y911)
= Exp(a + b × X911 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,321 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.2615 + -0.0028 × 1,321 – 2 × 0.0359)
= Exp(4.5165)
= $91.52

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 63.76% per annum.
  • HELE price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $53.49 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $27.48 (105.63%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: July 10, 2023
End date: July 3, 2024

a = 5.5330

b = -0.0006

s = 0.0835

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -19.39%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0835) – 1
= 39.67%

July 10, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y822)
= Exp(a + b × X822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,195 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5330 + -0.0006 × 1,195 + 2 × 0.0835)
= Exp(4.9942)
= $147.56

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y822)
= Exp(a + b × X822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,195 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5330 + -0.0006 × 1,195 – 2 × 0.0835)
= Exp(4.6601)
= $105.64

July 3, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,070)
= Exp(a + b × X1,070 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,554 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5330 + -0.0006 × 1,554 + 2 × 0.0835)
= Exp(4.7822)
= $119.36

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,070)
= Exp(a + b × X1,070 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,554 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5330 + -0.0006 × 1,554 – 2 × 0.0835)
= Exp(4.4480)
= $85.46

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 19.39% per annum.
  • HELE price at the close of March 31, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $19.33 (26.54%).

See Also

Symbol

Company name

WHR
Whirlpool Corporation