Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc (GPRE)
Green Plains Inc. produces, markets, and distributes ethanol in the United States and internationally. The company is headquartered in Omaha, Nebraska.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 56.37% per annum.
- GPRE price at the close of December 24, 2024 was $9.21 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.06 (0.66%).
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 66.07% per annum.
- GPRE price at the close of December 24, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GPRE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 3, 2023
End date: December 24, 2024
a = 6.5203
b = -0.0023
s = 0.0732
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0023) – 1
= -56.37%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0732) – 1
= 34.00%
July 3, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y884)
= Exp(a + b × X884 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,285 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5203 + -0.0023 × 1,285 + 2 × 0.0732)
= Exp(3.7466)
= $42.38
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y884)
= Exp(a + b × X884 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,285 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5203 + -0.0023 × 1,285 – 2 × 0.0732)
= Exp(3.4539)
= $31.63
December 24, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5203 + -0.0023 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0732)
= Exp(2.5195)
= $12.42
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5203 + -0.0023 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0732)
= Exp(2.2269)
= $9.27
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 56.37% per annum.
- GPRE price at the close of December 24, 2024 was $9.21 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.06 (0.66%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 19, 2024
End date: December 24, 2024
a = 7.6963
b = -0.0030
s = 0.0629
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0030) – 1
= -66.07%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0629) – 1
= 28.60%
March 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,063)
= Exp(a + b × X1,063 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,545 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6963 + -0.0030 × 1,545 + 2 × 0.0629)
= Exp(3.2471)
= $25.72
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,063)
= Exp(a + b × X1,063 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,545 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6963 + -0.0030 × 1,545 – 2 × 0.0629)
= Exp(2.9955)
= $20.00
December 24, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6963 + -0.0030 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0629)
= Exp(2.4180)
= $11.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6963 + -0.0030 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0629)
= Exp(2.1664)
= $8.73
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 66.07% per annum.
- GPRE price at the close of December 24, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.