Stock Price Trends

R1 RCM Inc (RCM)

None

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 8.95% per annum.
  • RCM price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $14.31 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 6.85% per annum.
  • RCM price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of RCM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: August 5, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024

a = 2.2338

b = 0.0002

s = 0.0016

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 8.95%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0016) – 1
= 0.65%

August 5, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,182)
= Exp(a + b × X1,182 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,720 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2338 + 0.0002 × 1,720 + 2 × 0.0016)
= Exp(2.6409)
= $14.03

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,182)
= Exp(a + b × X1,182 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,720 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2338 + 0.0002 × 1,720 – 2 × 0.0016)
= Exp(2.6344)
= $13.93

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2338 + 0.0002 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0016)
= Exp(2.6658)
= $14.38

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2338 + 0.0002 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0016)
= Exp(2.6593)
= $14.29

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 8.95% per annum.
  • RCM price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $14.31 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: September 26, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024

a = 2.3295

b = 0.0002

s = 0.0006

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 6.85%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0006) – 1
= 0.25%

September 26, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,219)
= Exp(a + b × X1,219 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,772 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3295 + 0.0002 × 1,772 + 2 × 0.0006)
= Exp(2.6525)
= $14.19

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,219)
= Exp(a + b × X1,219 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,772 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3295 + 0.0002 × 1,772 – 2 × 0.0006)
= Exp(2.6500)
= $14.15

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3295 + 0.0002 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0006)
= Exp(2.6623)
= $14.33

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3295 + 0.0002 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0006)
= Exp(2.6598)
= $14.29

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 6.85% per annum.
  • RCM price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.