R1 RCM Inc (RCM)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 8.95% per annum.
- RCM price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $14.31 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 6.85% per annum.
- RCM price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of RCM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 5, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 2.2338
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0016
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 8.95%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0016) – 1
= 0.65%
August 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,182)
= Exp(a + b × X1,182 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,720 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2338 + 0.0002 × 1,720 + 2 × 0.0016)
= Exp(2.6409)
= $14.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,182)
= Exp(a + b × X1,182 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,720 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2338 + 0.0002 × 1,720 – 2 × 0.0016)
= Exp(2.6344)
= $13.93
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2338 + 0.0002 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0016)
= Exp(2.6658)
= $14.38
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2338 + 0.0002 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0016)
= Exp(2.6593)
= $14.29
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 8.95% per annum.
- RCM price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $14.31 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 26, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 2.3295
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0006
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 6.85%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0006) – 1
= 0.25%
September 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,219)
= Exp(a + b × X1,219 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,772 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3295 + 0.0002 × 1,772 + 2 × 0.0006)
= Exp(2.6525)
= $14.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,219)
= Exp(a + b × X1,219 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,772 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3295 + 0.0002 × 1,772 – 2 × 0.0006)
= Exp(2.6500)
= $14.15
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3295 + 0.0002 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0006)
= Exp(2.6623)
= $14.33
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3295 + 0.0002 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0006)
= Exp(2.6598)
= $14.29
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 6.85% per annum.
- RCM price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.