Stock Price Trends

Viper Energy Ut (VNOM)

Viper Energy Partners LP owns, acquires and operates oil and natural gas properties in North America. The company is headquartered in Midland, Texas.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 76.34% per annum.
  • VNOM price at the close of January 17, 2025 was $51.37 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 16.32% per annum.
  • VNOM price at the close of January 17, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of VNOM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: June 12, 2023
End date: December 17, 2024

a = 1.1799

b = 0.0016

s = 0.0501

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0016) – 1
= 76.34%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0501) – 1
= 22.20%

June 12, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y854)
= Exp(a + b × X854 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,238 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1799 + 0.0016 × 1,238 + 2 × 0.0501)
= Exp(3.2040)
= $24.63

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y854)
= Exp(a + b × X854 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,238 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1799 + 0.0016 × 1,238 – 2 × 0.0501)
= Exp(3.0035)
= $20.16

December 17, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,236)
= Exp(a + b × X1,236 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,792 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1799 + 0.0016 × 1,792 + 2 × 0.0501)
= Exp(4.0650)
= $58.26

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,236)
= Exp(a + b × X1,236 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,792 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1799 + 0.0016 × 1,792 – 2 × 0.0501)
= Exp(3.8644)
= $47.68

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 76.34% per annum.
  • VNOM price at the close of January 17, 2025 was $51.37 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: October 11, 2024
End date: January 17, 2025

a = 4.8046

b = -0.0005

s = 0.0345

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -16.32%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0345) – 1
= 14.81%

October 11, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,190)
= Exp(a + b × X1,190 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,725 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8046 + -0.0005 × 1,725 + 2 × 0.0345)
= Exp(4.0313)
= $56.34

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,190)
= Exp(a + b × X1,190 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,725 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8046 + -0.0005 × 1,725 – 2 × 0.0345)
= Exp(3.8932)
= $49.07

January 17, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8046 + -0.0005 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0345)
= Exp(3.9835)
= $53.70

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8046 + -0.0005 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0345)
= Exp(3.8454)
= $46.78

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 16.32% per annum.
  • VNOM price at the close of January 17, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.