Stock Price Trends

Kinder Morgan Inc (KMI)

Kinder Morgan, Inc. is one of the largest energy infrastructure companies in North America. The company specializes in owning and controlling oil and gas pipelines and terminals.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 59.77% per annum.
  • KMI price at the close of November 22, 2024 was $28.49 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.95 (16.12%).
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 343.95% per annum.
  • KMI price at the close of November 22, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of KMI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: January 18, 2024
End date: October 9, 2024

a = 0.8212

b = 0.0013

s = 0.0188

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 59.77%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0188) – 1
= 7.79%

January 18, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,042)
= Exp(a + b × X1,042 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,515 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8212 + 0.0013 × 1,515 + 2 × 0.0188)
= Exp(2.8035)
= $16.50

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,042)
= Exp(a + b × X1,042 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,515 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8212 + 0.0013 × 1,515 – 2 × 0.0188)
= Exp(2.7284)
= $15.31

October 9, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,225)
= Exp(a + b × X1,225 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,780 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8212 + 0.0013 × 1,780 + 2 × 0.0188)
= Exp(3.1437)
= $23.19

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,225)
= Exp(a + b × X1,225 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,780 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8212 + 0.0013 × 1,780 – 2 × 0.0188)
= Exp(3.0686)
= $21.51

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 59.77% per annum.
  • KMI price at the close of November 22, 2024 was $28.49 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.95 (16.12%).

Secondary Trend

Start date: September 6, 2024
End date: November 22, 2024

a = -4.1213

b = 0.0041

s = 0.0223

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0041) – 1
= 343.95%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0223) – 1
= 9.31%

September 6, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,202)
= Exp(a + b × X1,202 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,747 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.1213 + 0.0041 × 1,747 + 2 × 0.0223)
= Exp(3.0574)
= $21.27

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,202)
= Exp(a + b × X1,202 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,747 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.1213 + 0.0041 × 1,747 – 2 × 0.0223)
= Exp(2.9684)
= $19.46

November 22, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.1213 + 0.0041 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0223)
= Exp(3.3719)
= $29.13

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.1213 + 0.0041 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0223)
= Exp(3.2829)
= $26.65

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 343.95% per annum.
  • KMI price at the close of November 22, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.