Stock Price Trends

Dorian LPG Ltd (LPG)

Dorian LPG Ltd., is dedicated to the transportation of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) through its LPG tanker trucks worldwide. The company is headquartered in Stamford, Connecticut.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 60.43% per annum.
  • LPG price at the close of November 22, 2024 was $25.74 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 90.79% per annum.
  • LPG price at the close of November 22, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LPG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: May 20, 2024
End date: November 22, 2024

a = 7.9603

b = -0.0025

s = 0.0502

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0025) – 1
= -60.43%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0502) – 1
= 22.23%

May 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,127)
= Exp(a + b × X1,127 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,638 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.9603 + -0.0025 × 1,638 + 2 × 0.0502)
= Exp(3.8999)
= $49.40

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,127)
= Exp(a + b × X1,127 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,638 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.9603 + -0.0025 × 1,638 – 2 × 0.0502)
= Exp(3.6992)
= $40.41

November 22, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.9603 + -0.0025 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0502)
= Exp(3.4274)
= $30.80

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.9603 + -0.0025 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0502)
= Exp(3.2267)
= $25.20

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 60.43% per annum.
  • LPG price at the close of November 22, 2024 was $25.74 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: October 1, 2024
End date: November 22, 2024

a = 15.1417

b = -0.0065

s = 0.0199

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0065) – 1
= -90.79%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0199) – 1
= 8.30%

October 1, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,219)
= Exp(a + b × X1,219 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,772 + 2 × s)
= Exp(15.1417 + -0.0065 × 1,772 + 2 × 0.0199)
= Exp(3.6022)
= $36.68

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,219)
= Exp(a + b × X1,219 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,772 – 2 × s)
= Exp(15.1417 + -0.0065 × 1,772 – 2 × 0.0199)
= Exp(3.5225)
= $33.87

November 22, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(15.1417 + -0.0065 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0199)
= Exp(3.2624)
= $26.11

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(15.1417 + -0.0065 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0199)
= Exp(3.1827)
= $24.11

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 90.79% per annum.
  • LPG price at the close of November 22, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.