Stock Price Trends

ONEOK Inc (OKE)

Oneok, Inc. is a diversified Fortune 500 energy corporation based in Tulsa, Oklahoma.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 15.21% per annum.
  • OKE price at the close of April 1, 2025 was $99.50 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $9.61 (10.70%).
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 49.87% per annum.
  • OKE price at the close of April 1, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $2.94 (2.87%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of OKE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 1, 2021
End date: March 1, 2024

a = 3.6427

b = 0.0004

s = 0.0738

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 15.21%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0738) – 1
= 34.36%

March 1, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y228)
= Exp(a + b × X228 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 333 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6427 + 0.0004 × 333 + 2 × 0.0738)
= Exp(3.9196)
= $50.38

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y228)
= Exp(a + b × X228 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 333 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6427 + 0.0004 × 333 – 2 × 0.0738)
= Exp(3.6242)
= $37.50

March 1, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y984)
= Exp(a + b × X984 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,429 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6427 + 0.0004 × 1,429 + 2 × 0.0738)
= Exp(4.3449)
= $77.08

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y984)
= Exp(a + b × X984 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,429 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6427 + 0.0004 × 1,429 – 2 × 0.0738)
= Exp(4.0495)
= $57.37

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 15.21% per annum.
  • OKE price at the close of April 1, 2025 was $99.50 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $9.61 (10.70%).

Secondary Trend

Start date: May 15, 2023
End date: January 30, 2025

a = 2.6956

b = 0.0011

s = 0.0447

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 49.87%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0447) – 1
= 19.60%

May 15, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y784)
= Exp(a + b × X784 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,138 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6956 + 0.0011 × 1,138 + 2 × 0.0447)
= Exp(4.0466)
= $57.21

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y784)
= Exp(a + b × X784 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,138 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6956 + 0.0011 × 1,138 – 2 × 0.0447)
= Exp(3.8677)
= $47.83

January 30, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,213)
= Exp(a + b × X1,213 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,764 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6956 + 0.0011 × 1,764 + 2 × 0.0447)
= Exp(4.7406)
= $114.50

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,213)
= Exp(a + b × X1,213 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,764 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6956 + 0.0011 × 1,764 – 2 × 0.0447)
= Exp(4.5616)
= $95.74

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 49.87% per annum.
  • OKE price at the close of April 1, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $2.94 (2.87%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.