Perficient Inc (PRFT)
Perfficient, Inc. offers digital consulting services and solutions in the United States. The company is headquartered in St. Louis, Missouri.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 25.74% per annum.
- PRFT price at the close of October 10, 2024 was $75.96 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $14.98 (24.56%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 7.00% per annum.
- PRFT price at the close of October 10, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PRFT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 29, 2021
End date: May 3, 2024
a = 5.3036
b = -0.0008
s = 0.1315
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -25.74%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1315) – 1
= 69.25%
July 29, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y424)
= Exp(a + b × X424 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 617 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3036 + -0.0008 × 617 + 2 × 0.1315)
= Exp(5.0636)
= $158.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y424)
= Exp(a + b × X424 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 617 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3036 + -0.0008 × 617 – 2 × 0.1315)
= Exp(4.5374)
= $93.45
May 3, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,119)
= Exp(a + b × X1,119 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,626 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3036 + -0.0008 × 1,626 + 2 × 0.1315)
= Exp(4.2411)
= $69.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,119)
= Exp(a + b × X1,119 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,626 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3036 + -0.0008 × 1,626 – 2 × 0.1315)
= Exp(3.7149)
= $41.05
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 25.74% per annum.
- PRFT price at the close of October 10, 2024 was $75.96 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $14.98 (24.56%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 8, 2024
End date: October 10, 2024
a = 3.9985
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0028
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 7.00%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0028) – 1
= 1.11%
May 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,122)
= Exp(a + b × X1,122 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,631 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9985 + 0.0002 × 1,631 + 2 × 0.0028)
= Exp(4.3065)
= $74.18
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,122)
= Exp(a + b × X1,122 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,631 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9985 + 0.0002 × 1,631 – 2 × 0.0028)
= Exp(4.2955)
= $73.37
October 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,229)
= Exp(a + b × X1,229 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,786 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9985 + 0.0002 × 1,786 + 2 × 0.0028)
= Exp(4.3353)
= $76.35
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,229)
= Exp(a + b × X1,229 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,786 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9985 + 0.0002 × 1,786 – 2 × 0.0028)
= Exp(4.3242)
= $75.51
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 7.00% per annum.
- PRFT price at the close of October 10, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.