EPAM Systems Inc (EPAM)
EPAM Systems, Inc. provides digital platform engineering and software development services in North America, Europe, Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Georgia, East Asia, Southeast Asia, and Australia. The company is headquartered in Newtown, Pennsylvania.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 167.40% per annum.
- EPAM price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $168.84 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $19,898.69 (99.16%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 23.95% per annum.
- EPAM price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of EPAM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 23, 2021
End date: September 16, 2021
a = 5.0376
b = 0.0027
s = 0.0243
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0027) – 1
= 167.40%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0243) – 1
= 10.19%
April 23, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y267)
= Exp(a + b × X267 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 387 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0376 + 0.0027 × 387 + 2 × 0.0243)
= Exp(6.1289)
= $458.95
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y267)
= Exp(a + b × X267 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 387 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0376 + 0.0027 × 387 – 2 × 0.0243)
= Exp(6.0319)
= $416.51
September 16, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y368)
= Exp(a + b × X368 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 533 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0376 + 0.0027 × 533 + 2 × 0.0243)
= Exp(6.5224)
= $680.18
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y368)
= Exp(a + b × X368 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 533 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0376 + 0.0027 × 533 – 2 × 0.0243)
= Exp(6.4253)
= $617.29
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 167.40% per annum.
- EPAM price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $168.84 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $19,898.69 (99.16%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 23, 2021
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 6.5649
b = -0.0008
s = 0.2022
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -23.95%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.2022) – 1
= 124.56%
April 23, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y267)
= Exp(a + b × X267 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 387 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5649 + -0.0008 × 387 + 2 × 0.2022)
= Exp(6.6791)
= $795.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y267)
= Exp(a + b × X267 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 387 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5649 + -0.0008 × 387 – 2 × 0.2022)
= Exp(5.8701)
= $354.28
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5649 + -0.0008 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.2022)
= Exp(5.6002)
= $270.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5649 + -0.0008 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.2022)
= Exp(4.7912)
= $120.45
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 23.95% per annum.
- EPAM price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.