EPAM Systems Inc (EPAM)
EPAM Systems, Inc. provides digital platform engineering and software development services in North America, Europe, Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Georgia, East Asia, Southeast Asia, and Australia. The company is headquartered in Newtown, Pennsylvania.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 165.20% per annum.
- EPAM price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $227.60 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $13,452.81 (98.34%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 26.23% per annum.
- EPAM price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of EPAM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 21, 2021
End date: September 16, 2021
a = 4.6931
b = 0.0027
s = 0.0244
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0027) – 1
= 165.20%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0244) – 1
= 10.23%
April 21, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y355)
= Exp(a + b × X355 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 518 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6931 + 0.0027 × 518 + 2 × 0.0244)
= Exp(6.1260)
= $457.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y355)
= Exp(a + b × X355 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 518 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6931 + 0.0027 × 518 – 2 × 0.0244)
= Exp(6.0286)
= $415.12
September 16, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y458)
= Exp(a + b × X458 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 666 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6931 + 0.0027 × 666 + 2 × 0.0244)
= Exp(6.5215)
= $679.57
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y458)
= Exp(a + b × X458 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 666 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6931 + 0.0027 × 666 – 2 × 0.0244)
= Exp(6.4240)
= $616.49
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 165.20% per annum.
- EPAM price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $227.60 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $13,452.81 (98.34%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 21, 2021
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 6.7446
b = -0.0008
s = 0.1982
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -26.23%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1982) – 1
= 120.96%
April 21, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y355)
= Exp(a + b × X355 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 518 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7446 + -0.0008 × 518 + 2 × 0.1982)
= Exp(6.7093)
= $819.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y355)
= Exp(a + b × X355 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 518 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7446 + -0.0008 × 518 – 2 × 0.1982)
= Exp(5.9164)
= $371.09
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7446 + -0.0008 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1982)
= Exp(5.6191)
= $275.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7446 + -0.0008 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1982)
= Exp(4.8263)
= $124.75
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 26.23% per annum.
- EPAM price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.