Stock Price Trends

Kyndryl Holdings Inc (KD)

None

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 57.42% per annum.
  • KD price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $28.04 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 18.12% per annum.
  • KD price at the close of November 19, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.88 (3.23%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of KD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: June 9, 2022
End date: November 19, 2024

a = 1.9304

b = 0.0012

s = 0.1114

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 57.42%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1114) – 1
= 56.12%

June 9, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y158)
= Exp(a + b × X158 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 230 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9304 + 0.0012 × 230 + 2 × 0.1114)
= Exp(2.4390)
= $11.46

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y158)
= Exp(a + b × X158 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 230 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9304 + 0.0012 × 230 – 2 × 0.1114)
= Exp(1.9936)
= $7.34

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y773)
= Exp(a + b × X773 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,124 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9304 + 0.0012 × 1,124 + 2 × 0.1114)
= Exp(3.5504)
= $34.83

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y773)
= Exp(a + b × X773 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,124 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9304 + 0.0012 × 1,124 – 2 × 0.1114)
= Exp(3.1050)
= $22.31

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 57.42% per annum.
  • KD price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $28.04 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: May 8, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024

a = 3.7829

b = -0.0005

s = 0.0672

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -18.12%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0672) – 1
= 30.85%

May 8, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y638)
= Exp(a + b × X638 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 929 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7829 + -0.0005 × 929 + 2 × 0.0672)
= Exp(3.4086)
= $30.22

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y638)
= Exp(a + b × X638 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 929 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7829 + -0.0005 × 929 – 2 × 0.0672)
= Exp(3.1397)
= $23.10

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y773)
= Exp(a + b × X773 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,124 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7829 + -0.0005 × 1,124 + 2 × 0.0672)
= Exp(3.3018)
= $27.16

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y773)
= Exp(a + b × X773 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,124 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7829 + -0.0005 × 1,124 – 2 × 0.0672)
= Exp(3.0329)
= $20.76

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 18.12% per annum.
  • KD price at the close of November 19, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.88 (3.23%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.