Kyndryl Holdings Inc (KD)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 57.42% per annum.
- KD price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $28.04 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 18.12% per annum.
- KD price at the close of November 19, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.88 (3.23%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of KD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 9, 2022
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 1.9304
b = 0.0012
s = 0.1114
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 57.42%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1114) – 1
= 56.12%
June 9, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y158)
= Exp(a + b × X158 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 230 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9304 + 0.0012 × 230 + 2 × 0.1114)
= Exp(2.4390)
= $11.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y158)
= Exp(a + b × X158 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 230 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9304 + 0.0012 × 230 – 2 × 0.1114)
= Exp(1.9936)
= $7.34
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y773)
= Exp(a + b × X773 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,124 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9304 + 0.0012 × 1,124 + 2 × 0.1114)
= Exp(3.5504)
= $34.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y773)
= Exp(a + b × X773 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,124 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9304 + 0.0012 × 1,124 – 2 × 0.1114)
= Exp(3.1050)
= $22.31
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 57.42% per annum.
- KD price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $28.04 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 8, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 3.7829
b = -0.0005
s = 0.0672
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -18.12%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0672) – 1
= 30.85%
May 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y638)
= Exp(a + b × X638 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 929 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7829 + -0.0005 × 929 + 2 × 0.0672)
= Exp(3.4086)
= $30.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y638)
= Exp(a + b × X638 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 929 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7829 + -0.0005 × 929 – 2 × 0.0672)
= Exp(3.1397)
= $23.10
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y773)
= Exp(a + b × X773 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,124 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7829 + -0.0005 × 1,124 + 2 × 0.0672)
= Exp(3.3018)
= $27.16
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y773)
= Exp(a + b × X773 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,124 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7829 + -0.0005 × 1,124 – 2 × 0.0672)
= Exp(3.0329)
= $20.76
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 18.12% per annum.
- KD price at the close of November 19, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.88 (3.23%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.