Compass Minerals International Inc (CMP)
Compass Minerals International, Inc., produces and sells essential minerals primarily in the United States, Canada, Brazil, the United Kingdom, and internationally. The company is headquartered in Overland Park, Kansas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 56.23% per annum.
- CMP price at the close of December 2, 2024 was $15.09 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.58 (20.61%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 598.10% per annum.
- CMP price at the close of December 2, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CMP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 10, 2022
End date: October 14, 2024
a = 6.3637
b = -0.0023
s = 0.1484
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0023) – 1
= -56.23%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1484) – 1
= 81.04%
November 10, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y741)
= Exp(a + b × X741 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,073 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3637 + -0.0023 × 1,073 + 2 × 0.1484)
= Exp(4.2313)
= $68.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y741)
= Exp(a + b × X741 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,073 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3637 + -0.0023 × 1,073 – 2 × 0.1484)
= Exp(3.6378)
= $38.01
October 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,223)
= Exp(a + b × X1,223 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,777 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3637 + -0.0023 × 1,777 + 2 × 0.1484)
= Exp(2.6375)
= $13.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,223)
= Exp(a + b × X1,223 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,777 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3637 + -0.0023 × 1,777 – 2 × 0.1484)
= Exp(2.0440)
= $7.72
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 56.23% per annum.
- CMP price at the close of December 2, 2024 was $15.09 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.58 (20.61%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 14, 2024
End date: December 2, 2024
a = -6.9760
b = 0.0053
s = 0.0913
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0053) – 1
= 598.10%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0913) – 1
= 44.07%
August 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,181)
= Exp(a + b × X1,181 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,716 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-6.9760 + 0.0053 × 1,716 + 2 × 0.0913)
= Exp(2.3422)
= $10.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,181)
= Exp(a + b × X1,181 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,716 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-6.9760 + 0.0053 × 1,716 – 2 × 0.0913)
= Exp(1.9771)
= $7.22
December 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-6.9760 + 0.0053 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0913)
= Exp(2.9278)
= $18.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-6.9760 + 0.0053 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0913)
= Exp(2.5627)
= $12.97
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 598.10% per annum.
- CMP price at the close of December 2, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.