Arch Resources Inc (ARCH)
Arch Resources, Inc. produces and sells thermal and metallurgical coal from surface and underground mines. The company is headquartered in St. Louis, Missouri.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 12.95% per annum.
- ARCH price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $167.07 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 19.22% per annum.
- ARCH price at the close of November 20, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $4.94 (3.04%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ARCH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 2, 2022
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 4.4495
b = 0.0003
s = 0.1194
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 12.95%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1194) – 1
= 61.24%
March 2, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y572)
= Exp(a + b × X572 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 832 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4495 + 0.0003 × 832 + 2 × 0.1194)
= Exp(4.9660)
= $143.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y572)
= Exp(a + b × X572 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 832 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4495 + 0.0003 × 832 – 2 × 0.1194)
= Exp(4.4883)
= $88.97
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4495 + 0.0003 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1194)
= Exp(5.2977)
= $199.88
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4495 + 0.0003 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1194)
= Exp(4.8200)
= $123.97
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 12.95% per annum.
- ARCH price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $167.07 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 24, 2023
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 5.9960
b = -0.0006
s = 0.0801
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -19.22%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0801) – 1
= 37.75%
November 24, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,008)
= Exp(a + b × X1,008 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,464 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9960 + -0.0006 × 1,464 + 2 × 0.0801)
= Exp(5.3001)
= $200.36
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,008)
= Exp(a + b × X1,008 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,464 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9960 + -0.0006 × 1,464 – 2 × 0.0801)
= Exp(4.9798)
= $145.45
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9960 + -0.0006 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0801)
= Exp(5.0884)
= $162.13
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9960 + -0.0006 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0801)
= Exp(4.7682)
= $117.70
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 19.22% per annum.
- ARCH price at the close of November 20, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $4.94 (3.04%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.