Vector Group Ltd (VGR)
Vector Group Ltd. manufactures and sells cigarettes in the United States. The company is headquartered in Miami, Florida.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 6.41% per annum.
- VGR price at the close of October 7, 2024 was $14.99 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.76 (13.30%).
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 186.94% per annum.
- VGR price at the close of October 7, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of VGR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 30, 2021
End date: July 24, 2024
a = 2.1002
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0896
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 6.41%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0896) – 1
= 43.08%
December 30, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y530)
= Exp(a + b × X530 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 770 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1002 + 0.0002 × 770 + 2 × 0.0896)
= Exp(2.4103)
= $11.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y530)
= Exp(a + b × X530 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 770 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1002 + 0.0002 × 770 – 2 × 0.0896)
= Exp(2.0521)
= $7.78
July 24, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,173)
= Exp(a + b × X1,173 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,707 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1002 + 0.0002 × 1,707 + 2 × 0.0896)
= Exp(2.5698)
= $13.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,173)
= Exp(a + b × X1,173 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,707 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1002 + 0.0002 × 1,707 – 2 × 0.0896)
= Exp(2.2115)
= $9.13
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 6.41% per annum.
- VGR price at the close of October 7, 2024 was $14.99 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.76 (13.30%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 10, 2024
End date: October 7, 2024
a = -2.4076
b = 0.0029
s = 0.0540
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0029) – 1
= 186.94%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0540) – 1
= 24.10%
April 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,101)
= Exp(a + b × X1,101 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,602 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.4076 + 0.0029 × 1,602 + 2 × 0.0540)
= Exp(2.3269)
= $10.25
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,101)
= Exp(a + b × X1,101 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,602 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.4076 + 0.0029 × 1,602 – 2 × 0.0540)
= Exp(2.1110)
= $8.26
October 7, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,225)
= Exp(a + b × X1,225 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,782 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.4076 + 0.0029 × 1,782 + 2 × 0.0540)
= Exp(2.8467)
= $17.23
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,225)
= Exp(a + b × X1,225 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,782 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.4076 + 0.0029 × 1,782 – 2 × 0.0540)
= Exp(2.6308)
= $13.89
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 186.94% per annum.
- VGR price at the close of October 7, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.