United Airlines Holdings Inc (UAL)
United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (formerly known as United Continental Holdings, Inc., UAL Corporation, Allegis Corporation and founded originally as UAL, Inc.) is a publicly traded airline holding company headquartered in the Willis Tower in Chicago. UAH owns and operates United Airlines, Inc.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 2,081.43% per annum.
- UAL price at the close of January 27, 2025 was $106.74 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $39.59 (27.05%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 118.73% per annum.
- UAL price at the close of January 27, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UAL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 1, 2024
End date: December 6, 2024
a = -10.3350
b = 0.0084
s = 0.0502
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0084) – 1
= 2,081.43%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0502) – 1
= 22.24%
August 1, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,135)
= Exp(a + b × X1,135 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,647 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-10.3350 + 0.0084 × 1,647 + 2 × 0.0502)
= Exp(3.6750)
= $39.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,135)
= Exp(a + b × X1,135 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,647 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-10.3350 + 0.0084 × 1,647 – 2 × 0.0502)
= Exp(3.4741)
= $32.27
December 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,224)
= Exp(a + b × X1,224 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,774 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-10.3350 + 0.0084 × 1,774 + 2 × 0.0502)
= Exp(4.7475)
= $115.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,224)
= Exp(a + b × X1,224 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,774 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-10.3350 + 0.0084 × 1,774 – 2 × 0.0502)
= Exp(4.5467)
= $94.32
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 2,081.43% per annum.
- UAL price at the close of January 27, 2025 was $106.74 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $39.59 (27.05%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 6, 2024
End date: January 27, 2025
a = 0.7570
b = 0.0021
s = 0.0302
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0021) – 1
= 118.73%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0302) – 1
= 12.85%
November 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,203)
= Exp(a + b × X1,203 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,744 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7570 + 0.0021 × 1,744 + 2 × 0.0302)
= Exp(4.5571)
= $95.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,203)
= Exp(a + b × X1,203 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,744 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7570 + 0.0021 × 1,744 – 2 × 0.0302)
= Exp(4.4362)
= $84.46
January 27, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7570 + 0.0021 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0302)
= Exp(4.7330)
= $113.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7570 + 0.0021 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0302)
= Exp(4.6121)
= $100.69
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 118.73% per annum.
- UAL price at the close of January 27, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.