Stock Price Trends

Alaska Air Group Inc (ALK)

Alaska Air Group is an airline holding company based in SeaTac, Washington, United States.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 54.89% per annum.
  • ALK price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $51.14 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 96.03% per annum.
  • ALK price at the close of April 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ALK price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e

Primary Trend

Start date: September 27, 2023
End date: March 27, 2025

a = 1.9269

b = 0.0012

s = 0.1343

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 54.89%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1343) – 1
= 71.14%

September 27, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y876)
= Exp(a + b × X876 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,272 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9269 + 0.0012 × 1,272 + 2 × 0.1343)
= Exp(3.7204)
= $41.28

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y876)
= Exp(a + b × X876 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,272 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9269 + 0.0012 × 1,272 – 2 × 0.1343)
= Exp(3.1831)
= $24.12

March 27, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,819 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9269 + 0.0012 × 1,819 + 2 × 0.1343)
= Exp(4.3762)
= $79.53

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,819 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9269 + 0.0012 × 1,819 – 2 × 0.1343)
= Exp(3.8389)
= $46.47

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 54.89% per annum.
  • ALK price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $51.14 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: February 4, 2025
End date: April 2, 2025

a = 20.0205

b = -0.0088

s = 0.0576

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0088) – 1
= -96.03%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0576) – 1
= 25.91%

February 4, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,215)
= Exp(a + b × X1,215 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,768 + 2 × s)
= Exp(20.0205 + -0.0088 × 1,768 + 2 × 0.0576)
= Exp(4.5065)
= $90.60

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,215)
= Exp(a + b × X1,215 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,768 – 2 × s)
= Exp(20.0205 + -0.0088 × 1,768 – 2 × 0.0576)
= Exp(4.2761)
= $71.96

April 2, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(20.0205 + -0.0088 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0576)
= Exp(4.0026)
= $54.74

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(20.0205 + -0.0088 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0576)
= Exp(3.7722)
= $43.48

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 96.03% per annum.
  • ALK price at the close of April 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.