Stock Price Trends

Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL)

Delta Air Lines, Inc., typically referred to as Delta, is one of the major airlines of the United States and a legacy carrier. It is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 558.66% per annum.
  • DAL price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $64.75 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 873.93% per annum.
  • DAL price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DAL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: August 5, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024

a = -5.2719

b = 0.0052

s = 0.0259

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0052) – 1
= 558.66%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0259) – 1
= 10.91%

August 5, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,182)
= Exp(a + b × X1,182 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,720 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.2719 + 0.0052 × 1,720 + 2 × 0.0259)
= Exp(3.6628)
= $38.97

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,182)
= Exp(a + b × X1,182 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,720 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.2719 + 0.0052 × 1,720 – 2 × 0.0259)
= Exp(3.5592)
= $35.13

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.2719 + 0.0052 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0259)
= Exp(4.2102)
= $67.37

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.2719 + 0.0052 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0259)
= Exp(4.1066)
= $60.74

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 558.66% per annum.
  • DAL price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $64.75 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: October 2, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024

a = -7.2056

b = 0.0062

s = 0.0235

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0062) – 1
= 873.93%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0235) – 1
= 9.86%

October 2, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,223)
= Exp(a + b × X1,223 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,778 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-7.2056 + 0.0062 × 1,778 + 2 × 0.0235)
= Exp(3.9291)
= $50.86

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,223)
= Exp(a + b × X1,223 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,778 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-7.2056 + 0.0062 × 1,778 – 2 × 0.0235)
= Exp(3.8351)
= $46.30

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-7.2056 + 0.0062 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0235)
= Exp(4.2285)
= $68.61

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-7.2056 + 0.0062 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0235)
= Exp(4.1344)
= $62.45

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 873.93% per annum.
  • DAL price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.