Stock Price Trends

Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL)

Delta Air Lines, Inc., typically referred to as Delta, is one of the major airlines of the United States and a legacy carrier. It is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 93.64% per annum.
  • DAL price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $42.02 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.33 (0.79%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 316.12% per annum.
  • DAL price at the close of April 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DAL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: January 21, 2025
End date: April 22, 2025

a = 17.3661

b = -0.0075

s = 0.0633

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0075) – 1
= -93.64%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0633) – 1
= 28.82%

January 21, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,190)
= Exp(a + b × X1,190 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,730 + 2 × s)
= Exp(17.3661 + -0.0075 × 1,730 + 2 × 0.0633)
= Exp(4.4323)
= $84.13

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,190)
= Exp(a + b × X1,190 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,730 – 2 × s)
= Exp(17.3661 + -0.0075 × 1,730 – 2 × 0.0633)
= Exp(4.1791)
= $65.30

April 22, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 + 2 × s)
= Exp(17.3661 + -0.0075 × 1,821 + 2 × 0.0633)
= Exp(3.7453)
= $42.32

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 – 2 × s)
= Exp(17.3661 + -0.0075 × 1,821 – 2 × 0.0633)
= Exp(3.4921)
= $32.85

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 93.64% per annum.
  • DAL price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $42.02 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.33 (0.79%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: April 3, 2025
End date: April 24, 2025

a = -3.3940

b = 0.0039

s = 0.0470

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0039) – 1
= 316.12%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0470) – 1
= 20.69%

April 3, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,802 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.3940 + 0.0039 × 1,802 + 2 × 0.0470)
= Exp(3.7393)
= $42.07

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,802 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.3940 + 0.0039 × 1,802 – 2 × 0.0470)
= Exp(3.5512)
= $34.86

April 24, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.3940 + 0.0039 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0470)
= Exp(3.8213)
= $45.66

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.3940 + 0.0039 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0470)
= Exp(3.6333)
= $37.84

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 316.12% per annum.
  • DAL price at the close of April 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.