Stock Price Trends

Leslies Inc (LESL)

Leslie's, Inc. is a direct-to-consumer spa and pool care brand in the United States. The company is headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 76.22% per annum.
  • LESL price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $2.88 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 11.00% per annum.
  • LESL price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LESL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: December 27, 2023
End date: November 1, 2024

a = 6.6519

b = -0.0039

s = 0.1355

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0039) – 1
= -76.22%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1355) – 1
= 71.92%

December 27, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y794)
= Exp(a + b × X794 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,154 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6519 + -0.0039 × 1,154 + 2 × 0.1355)
= Exp(2.3812)
= $10.82

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y794)
= Exp(a + b × X794 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,154 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6519 + -0.0039 × 1,154 – 2 × 0.1355)
= Exp(1.8394)
= $6.29

November 1, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,008)
= Exp(a + b × X1,008 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,464 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6519 + -0.0039 × 1,464 + 2 × 0.1355)
= Exp(1.1612)
= $3.19

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,008)
= Exp(a + b × X1,008 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,464 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6519 + -0.0039 × 1,464 – 2 × 0.1355)
= Exp(0.6193)
= $1.86

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 76.22% per annum.
  • LESL price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $2.88 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: July 18, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024

a = 1.5149

b = -0.0003

s = 0.0550

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -11.00%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0550) – 1
= 24.63%

July 18, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y933)
= Exp(a + b × X933 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,358 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5149 + -0.0003 × 1,358 + 2 × 0.0550)
= Exp(1.1913)
= $3.29

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y933)
= Exp(a + b × X933 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,358 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5149 + -0.0003 × 1,358 – 2 × 0.0550)
= Exp(0.9711)
= $2.64

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,020)
= Exp(a + b × X1,020 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,482 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5149 + -0.0003 × 1,482 + 2 × 0.0550)
= Exp(1.1517)
= $3.16

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,020)
= Exp(a + b × X1,020 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,482 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5149 + -0.0003 × 1,482 – 2 × 0.0550)
= Exp(0.9315)
= $2.54

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 11.00% per annum.
  • LESL price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.