Leslies Inc (LESL)
Leslie's, Inc. is a direct-to-consumer spa and pool care brand in the United States. The company is headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 76.22% per annum.
- LESL price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $2.88 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 11.00% per annum.
- LESL price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LESL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 27, 2023
End date: November 1, 2024
a = 6.6519
b = -0.0039
s = 0.1355
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0039) – 1
= -76.22%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1355) – 1
= 71.92%
December 27, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y794)
= Exp(a + b × X794 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,154 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6519 + -0.0039 × 1,154 + 2 × 0.1355)
= Exp(2.3812)
= $10.82
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y794)
= Exp(a + b × X794 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,154 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6519 + -0.0039 × 1,154 – 2 × 0.1355)
= Exp(1.8394)
= $6.29
November 1, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,008)
= Exp(a + b × X1,008 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,464 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6519 + -0.0039 × 1,464 + 2 × 0.1355)
= Exp(1.1612)
= $3.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,008)
= Exp(a + b × X1,008 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,464 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6519 + -0.0039 × 1,464 – 2 × 0.1355)
= Exp(0.6193)
= $1.86
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 76.22% per annum.
- LESL price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $2.88 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 18, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 1.5149
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0550
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -11.00%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0550) – 1
= 24.63%
July 18, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y933)
= Exp(a + b × X933 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,358 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5149 + -0.0003 × 1,358 + 2 × 0.0550)
= Exp(1.1913)
= $3.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y933)
= Exp(a + b × X933 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,358 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5149 + -0.0003 × 1,358 – 2 × 0.0550)
= Exp(0.9711)
= $2.64
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,020)
= Exp(a + b × X1,020 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,482 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5149 + -0.0003 × 1,482 + 2 × 0.0550)
= Exp(1.1517)
= $3.16
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,020)
= Exp(a + b × X1,020 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,482 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5149 + -0.0003 × 1,482 – 2 × 0.0550)
= Exp(0.9315)
= $2.54
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 11.00% per annum.
- LESL price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.