Stock Price Trends

Weyerhaeuser Company (WY)

Weyerhaeuser Company is an American timberland company which owns nearly 12,400,000 acres of timberlands in the U.S. and manages an additional 14,000,000 acres timberlands under long-term licenses in Canada. The company also manufactures wood products. Weyerhaeuser is a real estate investment trust.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 1.41% per annum.
  • WY price at the close of January 27, 2025 was $30.85 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 3.70% per annum.
  • WY price at the close of January 27, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of WY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 10, 2021
End date: January 27, 2025

a = 3.4803

b = 0.0000

s = 0.0755

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -1.41%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0755) – 1
= 35.27%

March 10, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y281)
= Exp(a + b × X281 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 407 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4803 + 0.0000 × 407 + 2 × 0.0755)
= Exp(3.6155)
= $37.17

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y281)
= Exp(a + b × X281 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 407 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4803 + 0.0000 × 407 – 2 × 0.0755)
= Exp(3.3134)
= $27.48

January 27, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4803 + 0.0000 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0755)
= Exp(3.5603)
= $35.17

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4803 + 0.0000 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0755)
= Exp(3.2582)
= $26.00

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 1.41% per annum.
  • WY price at the close of January 27, 2025 was $30.85 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: September 13, 2022
End date: January 27, 2025

a = 3.2697

b = 0.0001

s = 0.0604

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 3.70%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0604) – 1
= 27.31%

September 13, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y662)
= Exp(a + b × X662 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 959 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2697 + 0.0001 × 959 + 2 × 0.0604)
= Exp(3.4858)
= $32.65

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y662)
= Exp(a + b × X662 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 959 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2697 + 0.0001 × 959 – 2 × 0.0604)
= Exp(3.2444)
= $25.65

January 27, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2697 + 0.0001 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0604)
= Exp(3.5720)
= $35.59

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2697 + 0.0001 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0604)
= Exp(3.3306)
= $27.95

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 3.70% per annum.
  • WY price at the close of January 27, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.