Weyerhaeuser Company (WY)
Weyerhaeuser Company is an American timberland company which owns nearly 12,400,000 acres of timberlands in the U.S. and manages an additional 14,000,000 acres timberlands under long-term licenses in Canada. The company also manufactures wood products. Weyerhaeuser is a real estate investment trust.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 1.41% per annum.
- WY price at the close of January 27, 2025 was $30.85 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 3.70% per annum.
- WY price at the close of January 27, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of WY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 10, 2021
End date: January 27, 2025
a = 3.4803
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0755
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -1.41%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0755) – 1
= 35.27%
March 10, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y281)
= Exp(a + b × X281 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 407 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4803 + 0.0000 × 407 + 2 × 0.0755)
= Exp(3.6155)
= $37.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y281)
= Exp(a + b × X281 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 407 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4803 + 0.0000 × 407 – 2 × 0.0755)
= Exp(3.3134)
= $27.48
January 27, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4803 + 0.0000 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0755)
= Exp(3.5603)
= $35.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4803 + 0.0000 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0755)
= Exp(3.2582)
= $26.00
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 1.41% per annum.
- WY price at the close of January 27, 2025 was $30.85 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 13, 2022
End date: January 27, 2025
a = 3.2697
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0604
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 3.70%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0604) – 1
= 27.31%
September 13, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y662)
= Exp(a + b × X662 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 959 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2697 + 0.0001 × 959 + 2 × 0.0604)
= Exp(3.4858)
= $32.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y662)
= Exp(a + b × X662 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 959 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2697 + 0.0001 × 959 – 2 × 0.0604)
= Exp(3.2444)
= $25.65
January 27, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2697 + 0.0001 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0604)
= Exp(3.5720)
= $35.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2697 + 0.0001 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0604)
= Exp(3.3306)
= $27.95
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 3.70% per annum.
- WY price at the close of January 27, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.