PotlatchDeltic Corp (PCH)
PotlatchDeltic (NASDAQ: PCH) is a leading Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) owning 1.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 1.86% per annum.
- PCH price at the close of January 27, 2025 was $42.86 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 8.39% per annum.
- PCH price at the close of January 27, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PCH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 31, 2021
End date: January 27, 2025
a = 3.8323
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0669
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -1.86%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0669) – 1
= 30.66%
March 31, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y296)
= Exp(a + b × X296 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 428 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8323 + -0.0001 × 428 + 2 × 0.0669)
= Exp(3.9440)
= $51.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y296)
= Exp(a + b × X296 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 428 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8323 + -0.0001 × 428 – 2 × 0.0669)
= Exp(3.6765)
= $39.51
January 27, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8323 + -0.0001 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0669)
= Exp(3.8720)
= $48.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8323 + -0.0001 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0669)
= Exp(3.6046)
= $36.77
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 1.86% per annum.
- PCH price at the close of January 27, 2025 was $42.86 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 7, 2023
End date: January 27, 2025
a = 4.1319
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0519
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -8.39%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0519) – 1
= 23.08%
June 7, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y846)
= Exp(a + b × X846 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,226 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1319 + -0.0002 × 1,226 + 2 × 0.0519)
= Exp(3.9413)
= $51.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y846)
= Exp(a + b × X846 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,226 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1319 + -0.0002 × 1,226 – 2 × 0.0519)
= Exp(3.7336)
= $41.83
January 27, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1319 + -0.0002 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0519)
= Exp(3.7972)
= $44.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1319 + -0.0002 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0519)
= Exp(3.5895)
= $36.22
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 8.39% per annum.
- PCH price at the close of January 27, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.