Warner Music Group (WMG)
Warner Music Group Corp.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 93.51% per annum.
- WMG price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $32.93 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 60.39% per annum.
- WMG price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of WMG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 2, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 0.5573
b = 0.0018
s = 0.0206
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0018) – 1
= 93.51%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0206) – 1
= 8.57%
August 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,048)
= Exp(a + b × X1,048 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,521 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.5573 + 0.0018 × 1,521 + 2 × 0.0206)
= Exp(3.3494)
= $28.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,048)
= Exp(a + b × X1,048 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,521 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.5573 + 0.0018 × 1,521 – 2 × 0.0206)
= Exp(3.2672)
= $26.24
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,124)
= Exp(a + b × X1,124 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,630 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.5573 + 0.0018 × 1,630 + 2 × 0.0206)
= Exp(3.5466)
= $34.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,124)
= Exp(a + b × X1,124 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,630 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.5573 + 0.0018 × 1,630 – 2 × 0.0206)
= Exp(3.4643)
= $31.95
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 93.51% per annum.
- WMG price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $32.93 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 18, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 1.3851
b = 0.0013
s = 0.0103
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 60.39%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0103) – 1
= 4.22%
September 18, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,080)
= Exp(a + b × X1,080 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,568 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3851 + 0.0013 × 1,568 + 2 × 0.0103)
= Exp(3.4353)
= $31.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,080)
= Exp(a + b × X1,080 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,568 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3851 + 0.0013 × 1,568 – 2 × 0.0103)
= Exp(3.3940)
= $29.79
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,124)
= Exp(a + b × X1,124 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,630 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3851 + 0.0013 × 1,630 + 2 × 0.0103)
= Exp(3.5156)
= $33.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,124)
= Exp(a + b × X1,124 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,630 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3851 + 0.0013 × 1,630 – 2 × 0.0103)
= Exp(3.4743)
= $32.27
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 60.39% per annum.
- WMG price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.