Warner Music Group (WMG)
Warner Music Group Corp.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 60.52% per annum.
- WMG price at the close of July 1, 2025 was $27.83 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.62 (6.20%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 39.31% per annum.
- WMG price at the close of July 1, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.42 (1.55%).
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of WMG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 11, 2025
End date: June 20, 2025
a = 7.8488
b = -0.0025
s = 0.0321
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0025) – 1
= -60.52%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0321) – 1
= 13.68%
February 11, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,158)
= Exp(a + b × X1,158 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,685 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8488 + -0.0025 × 1,685 + 2 × 0.0321)
= Exp(3.6225)
= $37.43
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,158)
= Exp(a + b × X1,158 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,685 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8488 + -0.0025 × 1,685 – 2 × 0.0321)
= Exp(3.4942)
= $32.92
June 20, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,814 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8488 + -0.0025 × 1,814 + 2 × 0.0321)
= Exp(3.2940)
= $26.95
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,814 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8488 + -0.0025 × 1,814 – 2 × 0.0321)
= Exp(3.1657)
= $23.71
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 60.52% per annum.
- WMG price at the close of July 1, 2025 was $27.83 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.62 (6.20%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 22, 2025
End date: June 30, 2025
a = 1.6351
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0090
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 39.31%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0090) – 1
= 3.65%
May 22, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,228)
= Exp(a + b × X1,228 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,785 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6351 + 0.0009 × 1,785 + 2 × 0.0090)
= Exp(3.2744)
= $26.43
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,228)
= Exp(a + b × X1,228 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,785 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6351 + 0.0009 × 1,785 – 2 × 0.0090)
= Exp(3.2386)
= $25.50
June 30, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6351 + 0.0009 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0090)
= Exp(3.3099)
= $27.38
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6351 + 0.0009 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0090)
= Exp(3.2740)
= $26.42
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 39.31% per annum.
- WMG price at the close of July 1, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.42 (1.55%).